Wood Mackenzie: East Africa’s Yet-to-Find Reserves Hold 95 tcf of Gas

Wood Mackenzie estimates that 100 trillion cubic feet (tcf) of gas has been discovered in Mozambique and Tanzania to date, ranking the Rovuma Basin as one of the most prolific conventional gas plays in the world.

However, there are significant technical and commercial challenges to be overcome in order to bring the gas to market by the end of this decade. These include: addressing issues around infrastructure, government capacity, financing and reaching a positive outcome to unitisation negotiations in Mozambique.

Recent discoveries and high profile M&A activity in Mozambique and Tanzania are attracting attention and Martin Kelly, Wood Mackenzie’s Head of Sub-Sahara Upstream Research, says the interest is justified: “100 tcf of gas has been discovered to date in East Africa and we estimate yet-to-find reserves could be as much as 80 tcf in Mozambique and 15 tcf in Tanzania. There is clearly plenty of gas to supply the likely commercialisation route of LNG – theoretically enough to support up to 16 LNG trains.

“The Rovuma basin is the most prolific in the region, and one of the hottest conventional gas plays in the world, with 85 tcf discovered so far. Globally in 2011, it yielded the third most hydrocarbons, and we expect it to top the list in 2012 if the first half of the year is anything to go by,” Kelly continues.

In neighbouring Tanzania, the targets are the northern extension of the Rovuma Basin and the Mafia Basin. Kelly says: “Tanzania has enjoyed considerable exploration success as well, but hasn’t discovered the same scale of reserves. The average discovery size is much smaller at around 2 tcf, compared to Mozambique which is over 7 tcf. Discoveries in Tanzania are also more spread out, so developing them will be more expensive than those in Mozambique because additional infrastructure will be required.”

One of the most immediate challenges for Mozambique, is the unitisation discussions which Wood Mackenzie understands have already begun. Kelly explains; “Of the 85 tcf of gas discovered to date in Mozambique, around half of it is thought to be one enormous field which is in communication across the block. Under Mozambican law, a unitisation agreement between the operating parties will be required.”

Although there is a risk that unitisation discussions could delay Final Investment Decision (FID) – the crucial last step before commercial development – and therefore LNG production, there are other discoveries which are wholly contained in Area 1 and Area 4 and therefore gas could come from these first.

Giles Farrer, Senior LNG research analyst for Wood Mackenzie comments: “Many challenges will need to be overcome prior to LNG project sanction. The region’s remoteness and lack of development present serious technical obstacles. There is virtually no existing skilled workforce and both Mozambique and Tanzania will have to build and establish deepwater ports capable of servicing the needs of the petroleum sector. On the commercial side, there is the question of government capacity – whether there is sufficient impetus and capability within the governments and national oil companies to advance the huge legislative, bureaucratic, customs and financial challenges that such a development would bring.

“The major outstanding milestone for Mozambique is the conclusion of a commercial framework agreement, which is in the process of being negotiated. It will determine how the LNG facility or facilities will be structured for the purpose of taxation and whether the Joint Ventures (JVs) will co-operate in the construction of a single, mega LNG facility, or pursue individual developments. One crucial advantage that the Tanzanian projects enjoy is that they have already negotiated commercial terms, prior to the announcement of their projects.”

Farrer continues: “Lastly there is the question of finance, we estimate that a two train greenfield development in the region is going to cost at least US$25 billion, and for some of the players involved financing their share of this sort of development cost will certainly prove challenging and could delay development.”

The joint analysis by Wood Mackenzie’s upstream and LNG research teams stresses that these challenges are not insurmountable. “They have been encountered and overcome in several countries before. The risk is that delays could lengthen development schedules and add to costs,” Farrer says in closing.

Wood Mackenzie: East Africa’s Yet-to-Find Reserves Hold 95 tcf of Gas| Offshore Energy Today.

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Another Gas Discovery for Anadarko Offshore Mozambique

Anadarko Petroleum Corporation today announced the Atum exploration well discovered another significant natural gas accumulation within the Offshore Area 1 of the Rovuma Basin.

The Atum discovery well encountered more than 300 net feet (92 meters) of natural gas pay in two high-quality Oligocene fan systems. Preliminary data indicates this latest discovery is connected to the partnership’s recent Golfinho discovery located approximately 10 miles (16.5 kilometers) to the northwest in the Offshore Area 1.

“The combined success at Atum and Golfinho and apparent connectivity of these Oligocene fan systems, indicate these discoveries represent our partnership’s second major natural gas complex offshore Mozambique,” said Sr. Vice President, Worldwide Exploration Bob Daniels. “We estimate this new complex, which is located entirely within the Offshore Area 1 block, holds 10 to 30-plus trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of incremental recoverable natural gas resources. We plan to immediately commence a four-well appraisal program of this complex, which has the potential to underpin a large LNG development.”

The Atum exploration well was drilled to a total depth of approximately 12,665 feet (3,860 meters), in water depths of approximately 3,285 feet (1,000 meters). Once operations are complete at Atum, the partnership plans to commence appraisal activities that are expected to be followed by a drillstem testing program in the Golfinho and Atum complex.

“With this latest discovery at Atum and a successful upcoming appraisal program, we believe the total estimated recoverable natural gas resource in Mozambique’s Offshore Area 1 is between 30 and 60 Tcf, and the current upside for total gas in place for the discovered reservoirs on the block is approaching 100 Tcf. We still have additional exploration opportunities that could expand the resource potential further,” said Anadarko President and CEO Al Walker. “A recoverable resource base of this scale supports our initial two-train development plans, as well as significant future expansions. Our current activity is focused on achieving reserve certification and a Final Investment Decision in 2013, as the partnership works toward expected first sales of LNG in 2018.”

Anadarko is the operator in the Offshore Area 1 with a 36.5-percent working interest. Co-owners include Mitsui E&P Mozambique Area 1, Limited (20 percent), BPRL Ventures Mozambique B.V. (10 percent), Videocon Mozambique Rovuma 1 Limited (10 percent) and Cove Energy Mozambique Rovuma Offshore, Ltd. (8.5 percent). Empresa Nacional de Hidrocarbonetos, ep’s 15-percent interest is carried through the exploration phase.

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5th Discovery in a Row for BG Group Offshore Tanzania

BG Group today announced its fifth consecutive Tanzania gas discovery with the Mzia-1 exploration well located in Block 1, offshore southern Tanzania.

Mzia-1 is BG Group’s first discovery within the deeper Cretaceous section and opens an extensive new play fairway within the Group’s offshore acreage in Blocks 1, 3 and 4, to complement the now proven Tertiary fairway.

Preliminary evaluation of the results indicates 55 metres of natural gas pay in good quality sands. An extensive logging programme has been completed, including the acquisition of pressure data and gas samples.

Significantly, the well has de-risked a number of adjacent Cretaceous prospects, which could form part of a future Mzia hub. These prospects are expected to be tested in a future appraisal programme to be defined following incorporation of data from this new well and 3D seismic.

The new resources proven by Mzia and the potential of adjacent prospects are currently under evaluation. Prior to drilling Mzia-1, BG Group had estimated mean total gross recoverable resources approaching 7 trillion cubic feet of gas from the four previous discoveries drilled in Tanzania.

Mzia-1 is approximately 45 kilometres offshore southern Tanzania in a water depth of 1 639 metres. It is some 23 kilometres from the Jodari-1 discovery and is part of the 2012 three-to-four well exploration programme.

Following the imminent completion of operations at Mzia, the Deepsea Metro-1 will relocate to Block 3 for the drilling of the next exploration prospect, Papa-1.

BG Group as operator has a 60% interest in Blocks 1, 3 and 4 offshore Tanzania, with Ophir Energy plc holding 40%.

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Anadarko: Another Major Discovery Offshore Mozambique

Anadarko Petroleum Corporation today announced the Golfinho exploration well discovered a new, major natural gas accumulation nearly 20 miles (32 kilometers) northwest of its Prosperidade complex within the Offshore Area 1 of the Rovuma Basin.

The Golfinho discovery well encountered more than 193 net feet (59 net meters) of natural gas pay in two high-quality Oligocene fan systems that are age-equivalent to, but geologically distinct from, the previous discoveries in the Prosperidade complex.

“The success of the Golfinho well significantly expands the tremendous resource potential of the Offshore Area 1 in the deep-water Rovuma Basin, with additional opportunities yet to test,” Anadarko Sr. Vice President, Worldwide Exploration, Bob Daniels said. “The Golfinho discovery, which is entirely contained within the Offshore Area 1 block, adds an estimated 7 to 20-plus Tcf (trillion cubic feet) of incremental recoverable resources over a significant areal extent. This new discovery is only 10 miles offshore, providing potential cost advantages for future development options.

“We are very excited about this new discovery and the value these additional resources represent for the people of Mozambique and our partnership. We look forward to continuing an active exploration program in the highly prospective northern and southern portions of the Offshore Area 1, as well as delineating this new discovery.”

The Golfinho exploration well was drilled to a total depth of approximately 14,885 feet (4,537 meters), in water depths of approximately 3,370 feet (1,027 meters). Once operations are complete at Golfinho, the partnership plans to mobilize the Belford Dolphin drillship to drill the Atum-1 exploration well.

Additionally, at the Barquentine-1 well location in the Prosperidade complex, the partnership successfully tested the upper Oligocene zone, which flowed at a facility-constrained rate of approximately 100 million cubic feet of natural gas per day. This is the third successful drill-stem test flowing at this facility-constrained rate.

Anadarko is the operator in the Offshore Area 1 with a 36.5-percent working interest. Co-owners include Mitsui E&P Mozambique Area 1, Limited (20 percent), BPRL Ventures Mozambique B.V. (10 percent), Videocon Mozambique Rovuma 1 Limited (10 percent) and Cove Energy Mozambique Rovuma Offshore, Ltd. (8.5 percent). Empresa Nacional de Hidrocarbonetos, ep’s 15-percent interest is carried through the exploration phase.

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Anadarko Successful at Barquentine-4 Well, Offshore Mozambique

Anadarko Petroleum Corporation today announced that with the success of its Barquentine-4 appraisal well, the partnership has completed the drilling portion of its planned appraisal program in the discovery area offshore Mozambique. The Barquentine-4 well, located in Offshore Area 1 of the Rovuma Basin, encountered approximately 525 net feet (160 meters) of natural gas pay, and became the Anadarko partnership’s ninth successful well in the complex.

Additionally, the company announced that sixth- and seventh-grade students at Escola Unidade and Escola Primaria 16 de Junho in Palma Village, Mozambique recently selected “Prosperidade” (Prosperity) as the name for the discovery area in the Offshore Area 1 block. Prosperidade includes the Windjammer, Barquentine, Lagosta and Camarao discoveries, as well as the five subsequent appraisal wells in the block. As previously announced, Prosperidade is estimated to hold recoverable resources of 17 to 30-plus trillion cubic feet of natural gas.

“Our appraisal drilling program in the Prosperidade complex offshore Mozambique delivered outstanding results that provide significant confidence in the vast extent of this accumulation and will be key in achieving third-party reserve certification, as we advance the partnership’s world-class LNG (liquefied natural gas) project toward FID (final investment decision),” Anadarko Sr. Vice President, Worldwide Exploration, Bob Daniels said. “The selection of Prosperidade as the field name is certainly appropriate, as it symbolizes the partnership’s expectations for this area and the opportunities it represents for the people of Mozambique. Our next step is to mobilize the drillship to the northern section of our block to begin testing additional high-potential exploration prospects that may expand the resource even further and provide tieback opportunities for future LNG hub facilities.”

The Barquentine-4 well is the northernmost well in the Prosperidade complex, approximately 19 miles (30 kilometers) north of the Lagosta discovery well located on the southern end. It is located in water depths of approximately 5,400 feet (1,650 meters). Once operations are complete at Barquentine-4, the drillship will be moved to the northern part of the Offshore Area 1 block to top-set the Atum prospect, and then begin drilling the Golfinho prospect. The partnership’s second drillship operating in the area is continuing to carry out an extensive testing program within the Prosperidade complex.

Anadarko is the operator of the 2.6-million-acre Offshore Area 1 with a 36.5-percent working interest. Co-owners in the area are Mitsui E&P Mozambique Area 1, Limited (20 percent), BPRL Ventures Mozambique B.V. (10 percent), Videocon Mozambique Rovuma 1 Limited (10 percent) and Cove Energy Mozambique Rovuma Offshore, Ltd. (8.5 percent). Empresa Nacional de Hidrocarbonetos, E.P.’s 15-percent interest is carried through the exploration phase.

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Anadarko’s First Flow Test Offshore Mozambique Successful

Anadarko Petroleum Corporation today announced the results of its first flow test offshore Mozambique. The Barquentine-2 well flowed at an equipment-constrained rate of 90 to 100 million cubic feet per day (MMcf/d), with minimal pressure drawdown, providing confidence in well designs that are capable of 100 to 200 MMcf/d.

“The test at Barquentine-2 exhibited exceptional flow characteristics, confirmed the deliverability of this reservoir and indicated a low density of development wells may be sufficient to produce the reservoir,” Anadarko Sr. Vice President, Worldwide Exploration, Bob Daniels said. “Using pre-set gauges in an offset well, we were able to confirm connectivity and reservoir continuity over a distance of more than 3 kilometers. The test also proves the reservoir has very high permeability, meeting the quality specifications for the partnership’s LNG development plans. This is a very encouraging way to start our testing program, which is an important component in the reserve certification process, as we focus on achieving FID (final investment decision) around the end of 2013.”

The Barquentine-2 well is located in water depths of approximately 5,400 feet (1,650 meters) in the Offshore Area 1 of the Rovuma Basin. The drillstem test was conducted by the Deepwater Millennium drillship, which is expected to be mobilized to the Barquentine-1 location for a second flow and interference test in the complex. The 2012 testing program also includes drillstem tests in the Lagosta and Camarao areas to the south of Barquentine.

Anadarko is the operator of the 2.6-million-acre Offshore Area 1 with a 36.5-percent working interest. Co-owners in the area are Mitsui E&P Mozambique Area 1, Limited (20 percent), BPRL Ventures Mozambique B.V. (10 percent), Videocon Mozambique Rovuma 1 Limited (10 percent) and Cove Energy Mozambique Rovuma Offshore, Ltd. (8.5 percent). Empresa Nacional de Hidrocarbonetos, E.P.’s 15-percent interest is carried through the exploration phase.

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UK: Shell Tables USD 1.56 bln Bid for Cove

Shell’s subsidiary, Shell Bidco has placed a bid £992.4 million (USD 1.56 billion) to acquire the entire issued and to be issued share capital of UK headquartered Cove Energy.

The bid comes one month after the decision announced by Cove to conduct a formal sale process for the company. Shell Bidco is a participant in the formal sale process and, as a result of such participation, Shell Bidco and Cove are near agreement on the full terms and conditions of a recommended cash offer by Shell Bidco for Cove. According to the report on Cove Energy’s website, Shell will pay 195 pence for each Cove share.

Still, the making of the Firm Intention Announcement is subject to, and conditional upon, the receipt of written consent of the Republic of Mozambique’s Minister of Mineral Resources which is related to Cove’s 8.5 per cent  participating interest in the Mozambique Rovuma Offshore Area 1 Block (the “Rovuma Area 1 Interest”),

Cove to assist with approvals

East Africa focused Cove has agreed, for as long as the Board of Cove expects to recommend the Proposed Offer, to assist Shell Bidco in relation to obtaining any required governmental consents, including the Mozambique Consent, as soon as reasonably practicable after the release of this announcement.

Shell’s decision to announce this Proposed Offer for Cove fits with Shell’s strategic aim to drive forward with its investment programme, to deliver sustainable growth and to provide competitive returns to shareholders.

East Africa is a major prospective hydrocarbon province, which has seen a significant increase in exploration activity in recent years. Shell already has interests in Tanzania, and the acquisition of Cove would mark Shell’s entry into exciting new hydrocarbon provinces in Kenya and Mozambique, with significant potential for new LNG from recent gas discoveries offshore Mozambique, and further complementary exploration positions in East Africa. In Mozambique, the Rovuma offshore basin is a frontier exploration area that holds large resources of natural gas reserves, suitable for LNG projects. According to Cove, the play represents the potential for 30+ tcf and 6 LNG trains.

Mozambique prosperity

“Shell understands that bringing these resources on stream is a strategic priority for the Mozambican Government in order to foster further economic and community development in the country, and Shell is committed to being a partner in that process,” said Shell in a statement.

Shell is one of the world’s largest LNG producers, with one of the most diverse LNG portfolios and access to strategic global markets with equity sales volumes of 18.83 mtpa of LNG in 2011. Shell holds the largest equity share of LNG capacity among IOCs – currently holding some 20.5 mtpa of equity LNG capacity on-stream. Adding Cove’s assets to Shell’s portfolio would strengthen and further diversify Shell’s existing global LNG portfolio of production and development projects. Furthermore, Shell has set industry records for LNG plant construction times and operational start-ups, safely delivering projects from concept to first production for/with its partners. In joint ventures with partners, Shell currently produces LNG in Australia, Brunei, Malaysia, Nigeria, Oman, Russia and Qatar, with excellent production reliability performance achieved at all these plants.

In addition to Shell’s technical expertise, its marketing and shipping know-how is designed to enable the delivery of long-term added value together with project partners. Shell has access to the key LNG markets of Europe, Asia Pacific and  North America. In 2011, Shell joint ventures supplied more than 30 per cent. of global LNG volumes. Shell would also bring its extensive project finance experience across the LNG value chain. Shell’s experience in LNG project finance extends over many projects, e.g.: Oman LNG, Nigeria LNG, Qatargas 4, Sakhalin.

Shell management said it was confident that its innovative technologies, leading plant designs, unmatched LNG operational experience and proven commercialisation strategies, combined with the experience of the operator of the Mozambique Rovuma Offshore Area 1 Block and the joint venture partners can add significant value to the project.

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Anadarko Strikes More Mozambique Gas

Anadarko Petroleum Corporation today said that its latest appraisal well offshore Mozambique, Lagosta-3, encountered approximately 577 total net feet (176 meters) of natural gas pay in multiple zones.

“The partnership’s successful appraisal drilling continues to confirm and expand the world-class nature of this massive natural gas accumulation offshore Mozambique,” said Bob Daniels, Anadarko Sr. Vice President, Worldwide Exploration. “The Lagosta-3 well encountered high-quality sands and successfully confirmed an area of the field that was not as well-imaged in our seismic data due to overlying faulting. Additionally, we continue to accelerate our operational learning curve, safely drilling the last two wells faster and more cost effectively than the preceding wells. We expect these drilling-efficiency improvements to translate into significant cost savings over time, as we continue to advance the project.”

The Lagosta-3 well is located about 2 miles (3 kilometers) west of the Lagosta-1 discovery well and 9 miles (15 kilometers) south of the Camarao-1 well. It was drilled to a total depth of approximately 13,715 feet (4,180 meters) in water depths of approximately 4,606 feet (1,404 meters) and will be suspended while the rig is mobilized to drill the Barquentine-4 appraisal well. Anadarko has two deepwater drillships operating in the discovery area offshore Mozambique, the second of which is now on location at the Barquentine-2 well preparing for drillstem testing.

Anadarko and its partners are now advancing a commercial liquefied natural gas (LNG) development in Mozambique that is initially expected to consist of at least two 5-million-tonne-per-annum liquefaction trains.

Anadarko is the operator of the 2.6-million-acre Offshore Area 1 with a 36.5-percent working interest. Co-owners in the area are Mitsui E&P Mozambique Area 1, Limited (20 percent), BPRL Ventures Mozambique B.V. (10 percent), Videocon Mozambique Rovuma 1 Limited (10 percent) and Cove Energy Mozambique Rovuma Offshore, Ltd. (8.5 percent). Empresa Nacional de Hidrocarbonetos, E.P.’s 15-percent interest is carried through the exploration phase.

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