US Threatens Russia Over Petrodollar-Busting Deal

04/04/2014

by Tyler Durden

On the heels of Russia’s potential “holy grail” gas deal with China, the news of a Russia-Iran oil “barter” deal, it appears the US is starting to get very concerned about its almighty Petrodollar

• *U.S. HAS WARNED RUSSIA, IRAN AGAINST POSSIBLE OIL BARTER DEAL
• *U.S. SAYS ANY SUCH DEAL WOULD TRIGGER SANCTIONS
• *U.S. HAS CONVEYED CONCERNS TO IRANIAN GOVT THROUGH ALL CHANNELS

We suspect these sanctions would have more teeth than some travel bans, but, as we noted previously, it is just as likely to be another epic geopolitical debacle resulting from what was originally intended to be a demonstration of strength and instead is rapidly turning out into a terminal confirmation of weakness.

As we explained earlier in the week,

Russia seems perfectly happy to telegraph that it is just as willing to use barter (and “heaven forbid” gold) and shortly other “regional” currencies, as it is to use the US Dollar, hardly the intended outcome of the western blocakde, which appears to have just backfired and further impacted the untouchable status of the Petrodollar.

…

“If Washington can’t stop this deal, it could serve as a signal to other countries that the United States won’t risk major diplomatic disputes at the expense of the sanctions regime,”

And here is Voice of Russia, “Russia prepares to attack the Petrodollar“:

The US dollar’s position as the base currency for global energy trading gives the US a number of unfair advantages. It seems that Moscow is ready to take those advantages away.

The existence of “petrodollars” is one of the pillars of America’s economic might because it creates a significant external demand for American currency, allowing the US to accumulate enormous debts without defaulting. If a Japanese buyer want to buy a barrel of Saudi oil, he has to pay in dollars even if no American oil company ever touches the said barrel. Dollar has held a dominant position in global trading for such a long time that even Gazprom’s natural gas contracts for Europe are priced and paid for in US dollars. Until recently, a significant part of EU-China trade had been priced in dollars.

Lately, China has led the BRICS efforts to dislodge the dollar from its position as the main global currency, but the “sanctions war” between Washington and Moscow gave an impetus to the long-awaited scheme to launch the petroruble and switch all Russian energy exports away from the US currency .

The main supporters of this plan are Sergey Glaziev, the economic aide of the Russian President and Igor Sechin, the CEO of Rosneft, the biggest Russian oil company and a close ally of Vladimir Putin. Both have been very vocal in their quest to replace the dollar with the Russian ruble. Now, several top Russian officials are pushing the plan forward.

First, it was the Minister of Economy, Alexei Ulyukaev who told Russia 24 news channel that the Russian energy companies must should ditch the dollar. “ They must be braver in signing contracts in rubles and the currencies of partner-countries, ” he said.

Then, on March 2, Andrei Kostin, the CEO of state-owned VTB bank, told the press that Gazprom, Rosneft and Rosoboronexport, state company specialized in weapon exports, can start trading in rubles. “ I’ve spoken to Gazprom, to Rosneft and Rosoboronexport management and they don’t mind switching their exports to rubles. They only need a mechanism to do that ”, Kostin told the attendees of the annual Russian Bank Association meeting.

Judging by the statement made at the same meeting by Valentina Matviyenko, the speaker of Russia’s upper house of parliament, it is safe to assume that no resources will be spared to create such a mechanism. “ Some ‘hot headed’ decision-makers have already forgotten that the global economic crisis of 2008 – which is still taking its toll on the world – started with a collapse of certain credit institutions in the US, Great Britain and other countries. This is why we believe that any hostile financial actions are a double-edged sword and even the slightest error will send the boomerang back to the aborigines,” she said.

It seems that Moscow has decided who will be in charge of the “boomerang”. Igor Sechin, the CEO of Rosneft, has been nominated to chair the board of directors of Saint-Petersburg Commodity Exchange, a specialized commodity exchange. In October 2013, speaking at the World Energy Congress in Korea, Sechin called for a “global mechanism to trade natural gas” and went on suggesting that “ it was advisable to create an international exchange for the participating countries, where transactions could be registered with the use of regional currencies “. Now, one of the most influential leaders of the global energy trading community has the perfect instrument to make this plan a reality. A Russian commodity exchange where reference prices for Russian oil and natural gas will be set in rubles instead of dollars will be a strong blow to the petrodollar.

Rosneft has recently signed a series of big contracts for oil exports to China and is close to signing a “jumbo deal” with Indian companies. In both deals, there are no US dollars involved. Reuters reports, that Russia is close to entering a goods-for-oil swap transaction with Iran that will give Rosneft around 500,000 barrels of Iranian oil per day to sell in the global market. The White House and the russophobes in the Senate are livid and are trying to block the transaction because it opens up some very serious and nasty scenarios for the petrodollar. If Sechin decides to sell this Iranian oil for rubles, through a Russian exchange, such move will boost the chances of the “petroruble” and will hurt the petrodollar.

It can be said that the US sanctions have opened a Pandora’s box of troubles for the American currency. The Russian retaliation will surely be unpleasant for Washington, but what happens if other oil producers and consumers decide to follow the example set by Russia? During the last month, China opened two centers to process yuan-denominated trade flows, one in London and one in Frankfurt. Are the Chinese preparing a similar move against the greenback? We’ll soon find out.

Finally, those curious what may happen next, only not to Iran but to Russia, are encouraged to read “From Petrodollar To Petrogold: The US Is Now Trying To Cut Off Iran’s Access To Gold.”

Source

Euro currency could collapse and trigger another Great Depression, IMF warns for the first time

End of the Euro?: The IMF warns that one country leaving the single currency could force its entire collapse

By Hugo Duncan

PUBLISHED: 12:45 EST, 17 April 2012

UPDATED: 04:28 EST, 18 April 2012

The eurozone could break up and trigger a global economic slump to rival the Great Depression, the IMF warned last night.

In its World Economic Outlook report, the International Monetary Fund said the collapse of the crisis-torn single currency could not be ruled out.

It was the first time the Washington-based institution has accepted the prospect of the eurozone splitting up and follows fears over the health of the Spanish economy.

The IMF predicted a return to recession in the eurozone this year but upgraded its growth forecasts for Britain.

However, it warned that the world remains at risk of collapsing into a slump that would rival the Great Depression – with ‘acute risks in Europe’ the major threat.

‘Things have quietened down but there is a very uneasy calm,’ said IMF chief economist Olivier Blanchard. ‘I have a feeling that at any moment things could get very bad again.’

Speaking at the launch of the half-yearly report in Washington, Mr Blanchard said there was ‘no plan’ in place to deal with a country leaving the euro.

However Greece is widely expected to default on its crippling debts and quit the doomed single currency.

‘If such an event occurs, it is possible that other euro area economies would come under severe pressure as well, with a full-blown panic in financial markets,’ the IMF report said.

‘Under these circumstances, a break-up of the euro area could not be ruled out. This could cause major political shocks that could aggravate economic stress to levels well above those after the Lehman collapse.’

U.S. investment bank Lehman Brothers imploded in September 2008 – plunging the world economy into the worst recession since the 1930s. The IMF said that although ‘the outlook for the global economy is slowly improving again’ it is ‘still very fragile’.

It warned of the ‘possibility that several adverse shocks could interact to produce a major slump reminiscent of the 1930s’.

The IMF forecast growth of 0.8 per cent in Britain this year – more than the 0.6 per cent it predicted in January, but less than last September’s target of 1.6 per cent. Its 2013 forecast was unchanged at  2 per cent.

Asked about the IMF’s comments on the eurozone, a Downing Street spokesman said: ‘The eurozone still needs to get its house in order. Those issues still exist and no doubt will be a focus of discussions at the coming meeting of the IMF towards the end of the week, which the Chancellor will be attending.’

The IMF said Britain will outperform Germany and France this year – their economies are expected to grow by just 0.6 per cent and 0.5 per cent respectively.

The Italian and Spanish economies are forecast to decline by 1.9 per cent and 1.8 per cent, while a slump of 4.7 per cent is expected in Greece following a 6.9 per cent drop in 2011.

But the report warned that output in the eurozone could fall by 3.5 per cent over the next two years if the debt crisis escalates.

This would knock 2 per cent off the world economy, said the IMF, while a 50 per cent rise in the oil price would lower output by a further 1.25 per cent.

In the absence of such ‘shocks’ the global economy is expected to grow by 3.5 per cent this year, down from 3.9 per cent in 2011, with the U.S., Canada and Japan leading the way in the developed world.

‘Because of the problems in Europe, activity will continue to disappoint in the advanced economies as a group, expanding by only about 1.5 per cent in 2012 and by 2 per cent in 2013,’ said the report.

Source

Related articles

• ‘Euro meltdown will be a bigger disaster than the credit crunch’ (express.co.uk)
• IMF: Euro Break-up Cannot Be Ruled Out (news.sky.com)
• IMF Exploits Euro-Crisis to Create Global Money Power (mb50.wordpress.com)

IMF Exploits Euro-Crisis to Create Global Money Power

Monday, April 16, 201

by Staff Report

Euro Area Seeks Bigger IMF War Chest on Spanish Concerns … European officials travel to Washington this week seeking a bigger global war chest to combat the debt crisis as Spain’s government battles to quell renewed market turmoil over its finances. Three weeks after European leaders unveiled emergency euro- area funding exceeding the symbolic $1 trillion mark, concerns about Spain’s position have ratcheted the nation’s borrowing costs to the highest levels this year. Crisis-fighting resources will dominate talks at the International Monetary Fund’s spring meeting in Washington from April 20-22. – Bloomberg

Dominant Social Theme: Austerity would work if Europe would just cooperate.

Free-Market Analysis: Almost unnoticed, the world’s leaders now speak in terms of trillions rather than billions (or millions) as they used to, and the IMF and central banks are leaders in this trend (see above excerpt).

The goal of the elites running these facilities is world government and the European Union is a stepping-stone to this consolidation. Austerity, the program that is supposedly stabilizing European finances, is actually an elite dominant theme that does the opposite of its stated intent.

As part of this globalist thrust, the power elite seeks to empower certain international facilities with additional funding and authority. Out of chaos … order, as the article excerpted above once again illustrates:

Bowing to international pressure to do more while stopping short of a bolder proposal, European governments agreed last month that 500 billion euros ($654 billion) in fresh money would be placed aside 300 billion euros already committed to create an 800 billion-euro defense against contagion.

By also offering to give the IMF 150 billion euros, “European governments have done their part,” ECB Executive Board Member Joerg Asmussen said April 13. “I would now expect our non-European friends and partners to contribute their part to IMF resources.”

This kind of problem/solution formula is easy to understand for anyone who wants to look. The elites pursue their goals via dominant social themes, fear-based promotions that frighten people into giving up power and wealth to globalist facilities. In this case the mechanism is the “sovereign debt crisis” and the solution is to puff up the IMF with more resources.

The longer the so-called sovereign debt crisis goes on, the more the globalists utilize it to expand the power of their chosen institutions. We wrote about this phenomenon just the other day in an article entitled, “Debt Crisis Plotted to Deliver the Euro to the IMF?” Here’s how we explained the genesis:

One has to keep in mind the artificiality of the current economic construct. The economy of the world is run via monopoly fiat/paper money printed by central banks. It is this system that has seemingly crashed half of the world’s economy and is well on the way to delivering China into the same situation …

The EU crisis itself, as we have often pointed out, started when certain poorer countries were given large amounts of money by Brussels to “equalize” the economy. These funds were supposed to allow the bureaucracies to address native imbalances and create fiscal health.

Of course, this money was nothing but a kind of bribe. The elites of the given nation pocketed the funds and then made sure their countries entered the EU. After this occurred, further lending took place via the elite’s top, European commercial banks.

After the 2008 crash, it became clear that the EU’s PIGS couldn’t repay the loans. This was likely the plan all along. After this realization set in, the power elite that orchestrates this sort of thing ensured that the solution to this manipulated dilemma was “austerity.”

The idea is evidently and obviously to make people so miserable that they will eventually welcome world government and world money. The power elite orchestrating this has been using what we call directed history for at least a century and probably closer to three – within the context of the modern globalist conspiracy.

The article we are analyzing today from Bloomberg suggests an expanded IMF based on the Euro crisis. But the IMF is also promoting a US$500 billion expansion via developing countries.

The justification is that the European crisis might spill over into other continents and nations. The IMF has to be prepared for via a half billion-dollar transfer from the very countries it claims to be protecting. Reuters reports the following:

Euro Area Seeks Bigger IMF War Chest on Spanish Concerns … International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Christine Lagarde said that she is hoping to make “real progress” at this week’s meetings …

In January, the IMF said it would need $600 billion in new resources to help “innocent bystanders” who might be affected by economic and financial spillovers from Europe … On Friday, officials from the Group of 20 nations told Reuters the world’s major economies were likely to agree to provide the IMF with somewhere between $400 billion and $500 billion.

A G20 official said the fundraising effort would likely raise about $50 billion from Japan and a similar amount from China and Saudi Arabia, in addition to the $250-300 billion already committed by EU countries. Smaller amounts will likely come from countries such as Russia, Mexico and Brazil.

Thus it is that the IMF expands. It is receiving at least US$150 billion from Europe and hundreds of billions from mostly “developing” countries. It is interesting that the Reuters article and the Bloomberg article don’t quite match up on the European contributions. What’s a few hundred billion among friends?

In fact, nobody REALLY knows how much money is flowing at the top, or where it is headed. The point of the reports is promotional and has little to do with accuracy. The idea is to throw vast sums around as to imbue government officials with godlike powers.

Often, we discover the announcements made about funds prove not to be true. The European sovereign debt crisis was supposed to have been solved years ago, when the first announcements were made that funds had been delegated to “fix” the problem by leading European sponsors.

In fact, we have come to realize this crisis – like other crises around the world – are often manufactured ones. This is no doubt why they often last so long. The longer the crisis lasts, the more possibilities for a transformative effect.

In this case it seems obvious to us that the intent is to make citizens of the West so miserable (via “austerity”) that they will welcome virtually any change, even globalism, that promises to make their lives better.

Seen through this admittedly cynical lens, the 20th century with all its “isms” and arguments for expanding government via socialism, etc., was the first part of a promotion that is now nearing its latter stages. Having successfully made people dependent on government, the powers-that-be are now removing those props in order to further their internationalist aims.

No doubt global governance will be sold the same way as were the initial governmental solutions of the 20th century – as a panacea that will somehow reduce the world’s afflictions and rectify the wrongs of the “market.”

Conclusion: We are not yet sure the IMF is destined to become the world’s central bank – complete with an SDR global currency – but the IMF is continually showing up at the center of things as world economic chaos blossoms. More that the Bank for International Settlements or even the World Bank, it appears to be the Chosen One.

Source

Related articles

• IMF funds drive caught in global power shift (jhaines6.wordpress.com)
• Spain again to test investors’ nerves (donny-wise.com)
• Japan mulls $60 bil. contribution to IMF resource boost (english.kyodonews.jp)
• Daily US Opening News And Market Re-Cap: April 16 (zerohedge.com)
• S. Africa pushing for more World Bank, IMF reform (seattlepi.com)

The Chinese Yuan May Become A World Currency

By Eliot Elwar

Apr 15, 2012

China seeks to replace the diminishing U.S. dollar as the world reserve and trade currency, and efforts are underway in Beijing to set up the Chinese yuan for global currency.

Global economic analysis shows that China’s yuan inches closer to global currency, dollar tumbles as jobs data disappoints many, dollar falls after fed comments, disappointing Italy bond auction weighs on European stocks, and China’s central bank governor suggests creating super-sovereign reserve currency.

According to Forbes, China’s yuan may be two years away from becoming a global trade currency. By 2014, an economic system may be created to settle cross-border yuan transactions, which could increase currency convertibility in Beijing and elsewhere. When this economic system is developed, it will permit nations to settle expenses with Chinese merchandises or in yuans rather than dollars. Over time, the yuan usage, mainly in Asian trade markets, would take demand away from the dollar along with its status as world’s reserve and trade currency.

According to Business Week, the dollar fell among its major peers as data showed the number of Americans filing for jobless benefits since January, making the argument for monetary policy. Additionally, In China, Australia’s largest trading partner, local- currency-denominated loans were 1.01 trillion yuan ($160.1 billion) in March, the People’s Bank of China. This exceeded all 28 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey, reassuring investors the nation may avoid a deep slowdown.

According to Market Watch, the U.S. dollar declined after a second Federal Reserve official emphasized dangers to U.S. financial development, remaining lower against the euro after Italy managed to trade benchmark three-year bonds and other debt. The Australian dollar performed very well after stronger-than-expected Australian jobs data. The euro grew to $1.3199, from the lower $1.3102 during North American trading. The 17-nation shared currency also advanced on the Japanese yen up 0.3% to ¥106.58.

According to Xinhua, Zhou Xiaochuan, China’s central bank governor, has propositioned to make a super-sovereign backup currency to support the international monetary system reform. He said the international monetary system seeks to fashion an international reserve exchange that is disengaged from distinct nations with ability to remain unwavering in overtime, thus eliminating the characteristic insufficiencies produced by operating credit-based national currencies.

Finally, although a super sovereign currency is not currently on the horizon, China still has high objectives for the yuan. China’s ability to internationalize the yuan would give it another way to inflict damage on the US economy and begin gradually replacing the shaky U.S. dollar with the Chinese yuan.

Read more: Source

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• US, IMF welcome China’s move on yuan trading band (business.financialpost.com)
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Debt Crisis Plotted to Deliver the Euro to the IMF?

Spanish bailout ‘impossible’ for eurozone, says prime minister Mariano Rajoy … The eurozone is not equipped to bail out Spain, the country’s prime minister Mariano Rajoy has admitted, as global traders continued to punish the nation’s stocks and bonds. Mr Rajoy said it was “not possible to rescue Spain” but insisted his country did not need a Greek-style international bail-out anyway …Christine Lagarde, the boss of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), also warned that Europe’s rescue mechanisms were not enough to restore confidence to global markets but said the IMF could provide a “global firewall”. Speaking in Washington on Thursday, Ms Lagarde, who is seeking to raise $500bn (£313.4bn) in extra funds for the IMF from the G20, warned risks to the global economy “remain high; the situation fragile”. “We need a broader approach – and a stronger global firewall – if we are to push back this crisis. The IMF can help. But to be as effective as possible, we need to increase our resources.” – UK Telegraph

Dominant Social Theme: What is needed is a global currency.

Free-Market Analysis: We’ve long since come to the conclusion that the EU‘s sovereign crisis is a manufactured one. This article supports such a conclusion, in our view.

One has to keep in mind the artificiality of the current economic construct. The economy of the world is run via monopoly fiat/paper money printed by central banks. It is this system that has seemingly crashed half of the world’s economy and is well on the way to delivering China into the same situation.

If China’s economy folds – and it seems well on the way – there will likely be a global depression. The elites, in our view, are preparing to offer up the International Monetary Funds’ SDRs as an alternate currency. The IMF is increasingly active as the “lender of last resort” throughout the world (see article excerpt above).

The EU crisis itself, as we have often pointed out, started when certain poorer countries were given large amounts of money by Brussels to “equalize” the economy. These funds were supposed to allow the bureaucracies to address native imbalances and create fiscal health.

Of course, this money was nothing but a kind of bribe. The elites of the given nation pocketed the funds and then made sure their countries entered the EU. After this occurred, further lending took place via the elite’s top, European commercial banks.

After the 2008 crash, it became clear that the EU’s PIGS couldn’t repay the loans. This was likely the plan all along. After this realization set in, the power elite that orchestrates this sort of thing ensured that the solution to this manipulated dilemma was “austerity.”

The idea is evidently and obviously to make people so miserable that they will eventually welcome world government and world money. The power elite orchestrating this has been using what we call directed history for at least a century and probably closer to three – within the context of the modern globalist conspiracy.

These elites, based out of the City of London it seems, with arms in Washington DC, Rome, Tel Aviv and elsewhere, have been working steadily toward world government and used fear-based promotions to achieve it.

These dominant social themes are generated to frighten people into seeking or at least accepting globalist solutions. These themes are usually accompanied by artificial crises – in this case, economic crises created by the boom/bust monopoly central banking system.

There is no doubt that “austerity” is not helping solve the apparently ginned-up economic crisis in Spain, Greece or Italy. Here’s more from the article excerpted above:

“To talk about a bail-out for Spain at the moment makes no sense,” he told reporters. “Spain is not going to be rescued; it’s not possible to rescue Spain, there’s no intention to, it’s not necessary and therefore it’s not going to be rescued.” Despite his comments, the Madrid bourse fell and the yields on the country’s benchmark bonds remained stubbornly high. While other European markets soared on Thursday following strong gains in America, Spain’s Ibex index lost 0.5pc.

Politicians in Rome tried to counter the markets’ view that Italy was in the same predicament as Spain.Vittorio Grilli, Italy’s deputy finance minister, said “markets are very nervous” but added: “We cannot talk about a derby between Italy and Spain.” Analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch said: “Although Spain and Italy face very different economic and fiscal issues, their yields are largely moving in tandem.”

Meanwhile, the Greek unemployment rate rose to 21.8pc, according to fresh figures from the national statistics office. During 2011, the average annual jobless rate soared to 17.7pc from 12.5pc the year before, revealing the toll of the crisis and resulting austerity measures that have seen one-in-10 jobs destroyed. One-in-five Greeks is now jobless, including 50.8pc of those aged under 25. The rate is twice as high as the eurozone average.

Various EU countries were manipulated into joining the EU, after which time a central-banking led economic crisis created a global meltdown. Then austerity was initiated to counter the “sovereign debt” crisis in Europe. The PIGS are now suffering from this faux-solution.

Even the name PIGS (PIIGS) is suspect. Developed years ago by a Goldman Sachs banker, the name denotes greed and has been applied to nation-states characterized in this way. It seems to us that this is all part of a larger manipulation. Directed history – from the nomenclature on down.

Meanwhile, the IMF continues to receive high-profile coverage in the elite controlled mainstream media. This high profile is being constructed within the context ongoing efforts to build up SDRs as a mainstream currency.

A good article on the moves being made to build this currency is entitled “The Triffin Dilemma Will Create a 3-G World” and was posted at Goldseek. In it, author Richard Mills points out the following:

In the wake of the financial crisis of 2007–2008, Zhou Xiaochuan the governor of the People’s Bank of China, said that a national currency is unsuitable as a global reserve currency … In a speech titled “Reform the International Monetary System” Zhou argued that part of the reason for the original Bretton Woods system breaking down was the refusal to adopt Keynes‘ bancor.

Calling Keynes’s bancor approach “farsighted” Xiaochuan proposed strengthening existing global currency controls through the IMF by the adoption of International Monetary Fund (IMF) special drawing rights (SDRs) as a global reserve currency. When Special Drawing Rights were originally created in 1969 one SDR was defined as having a value of 0.888671 grams of gold, equal to the value of one US dollar at that time. After the breakdown of the Bretton Woods system the SDR was redefined in terms of a basket of four currencies.

From January 1 2011, the IMF has determined that the four currencies will be assigned revised weights based on their roles in international trade and reserves. Due to varying exchange rates, the relative value of each currency varies continuously and thus the value of the SDR fluctuates. The IMF fixes daily the value of one SDR in terms of US dollars based on the exchange rates of the constituent currencies.

We’ve speculated that the elites want to create some sort of formalized gold standard in the past. But more and more the logic is inescapable: The elites are opposed to gold at every level (except for themselves). They hate the idea in fact that the common man owns either gold or silver. Monopoly fiat/paper offers much more control.

Having spent a century building up monopoly central banking, all the way to 150 central banks, the power elite seems in no mood to back-peddle. The IMF is apparently their chosen vehicle to create an international monopoly fiat currency, and it continues to have a high profile.

Conclusion: The IMF is presented as the “firewall” that can contain the European conflagration. Eventually the IMF’s SDR “currency” shall be elaborated on, perhaps sooner rather than later. The European crisis is a kind of shadow play and the IMF and its money are likely being positioned as a solution … if not THE solution.

Source

Related articles

• Spain Tries to Save Itself as Prospects Slip Away (247wallst.com)
• ECB Asmussen: To Use Monpol, Nonstandard Tools If Needed: WSJ (forexlive.com)
• IMF funds drive caught in global power shift (firstpost.com)
• Global growth forecasts to be revised down (independent.co.uk)

"Super-currency" to "replace" dollar? (Geithner, IMF)

This is what Geithner says in response to an idea floated by the governor of the People’s Bank of China for a “new international reserve currency“, which some news outlets are calling a “super-currency”; he’s “open” to it. Sent the dollar sliding against the euro.

Geithner Remarks on IMF Roil Foreign-Exchange Market

By Rebecca Christie

March 26, 2009 00:00 EDT

March 26 (Bloomberg) — Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner sent the dollar tumbling with comments about China’s ideas for overhauling the global monetary system, only to drive it back up by affirming that it should remain the world’s reserve currency.

Geithner was asked at a Council on Foreign Relations event in New York yesterday about People’s Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan’s call for a new international reserve currency. He said while he had not read Zhou’s proposal, he understood it as a plan “designed to increase the use of the IMF’s special drawing rights. And we’re actually quite open to that.”

The dollar slid as much as 1.3 percent against the euro within 10 minutes of news accounts of Geithner’s remarks. It recouped much of the loss about 15 minutes later, when Geithner then predicted no change in the U.S. currency’s role. The dollar was down 0.22 percent at $1.3553 per euro as of 12:13 p.m. in Tokyo.

The episode highlights investors’ sensitivity to any weakening role for the dollar as power shifts toward a wider group of developed and emerging nations, said James McCormick, Citigroup Inc.’s global head of foreign-exchange and local- markets strategy. It was “important” that China’s proposal came in the run-up to a Group of 20 summit next week, he added.

Share of Reserves

“The G-20 is gaining relative power versus the G-7 and we will feel that and see that for some time to come,” London- based McCormick said. One key focus for markets will be any change in sentiment toward the dollar, which makes up about two- thirds of world central banks’ foreign-exchange reserves, he said.

Geithner will attend the summit of the G-20, which groups the largest developing and emerging countries, April 2 in London along with President Barack Obama. The smaller Group of Seven had since the 1970s been the main forum for leaders of nations with the biggest economies.

After the dollar slumped in the aftermath of Geithner’s first remarks, Roger Altman, who worked with Geithner as deputy Treasury secretary in the Clinton administration, asked him whether he wanted to “clarify” his comments.

“I’d like to ask one final question, in effect on behalf of the market,” said Altman, founder of Evercore Partners Inc. “Let me ask the question this way. Do you see any change over the foreseeable future in the basic role of the dollar as the world’s key reserve currency?”

‘Strong Dollar’

Geithner responded: “I think the dollar remains the world’s dominant reserve currency.” In an interview with CNBC broadcast after the event, the Treasury chief said that a “strong dollar” is in “America’s interest.”

In his earlier answer, Geithner said increased use of SDRs should be “rather evolutionary, building on the current architecture, rather than moving us to global monetary union.” SDRs are a unit of account at the IMF used for member countries’ reserves with the fund.

Geithner’s remarks don’t indicate Geithner favors moving to a system with the SDR as a reserve currency, strategist Lee Hardman at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi Ltd. wrote in a note.

“That was the big concern amongst the confusion,” London- based Hardman said. “A move to an SDR-linked system away from the dollar would naturally lead to a reduction in the dollar’s share of global reserves.”

‘Confidence’ in U.S.

Geithner, a former Treasury undersecretary for international affairs and president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, which carries out U.S. interventions in currency markets, also said that “we will do what’s necessary to make sure we’re sustaining confidence in our financial markets.”

Geithner and Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke both told lawmakers on March 24 that they expected the dollar to remain the most important global currency. Obama said at a news conference the same day that “the dollar is extraordinarily strong” because investors are confident in the ability of the U.S. to lead a worldwide recovery, and also rejected calls for a new global currency.

China is the largest foreign holder of U.S. Treasuries, and Premier Wen Jiabao earlier this month expressed concern about the value of its investment. Central bank governor Zhou this week advocated a “super-sovereign reserve currency” that’s disconnected from any individual nation.

Zhou said, in an essay posted on the PBOC’s Web site, that the International Monetary Fund’s special drawing rights offer “light in the tunnel for the reform of the international monetary system.” He said the SDR has yet to be “put into full play due to limitations on its allocation and the scope of its uses.”

McCormick at Citigroup said it was a concern that Geithner said he hadn’t read Zhou’s comments. “If I’m running the Treasury I would want to have been briefed on that.”

Geithner has been the only confirmed senior official at the Treasury since he took office in January. The White House this week nominated former Clinton official Lael Brainard as Treasury undersecretary for international affairs after at least one other candidate for the job removed herself from contention.

To contact the reporter on this story: Rebecca Christie in Washington at Rchristie4@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Chris Anstey at canstey@bloomberg.net

Source

Related articles

• The Chinese Yuan May Become A World Currency (mb50.wordpress.com)
• Geithner: No plans to increase IMF funding (upi.com)
• Forget The Election News: Keep Your Eye On Tim Geithner And The Love Trapezoid (businessinsider.com)
• CBI reveals new procedures for the central bank currency rates on the rise (thecurrencynewshound.com)
• Bernanke/Geithner: See Higher Energy,Europe Slowing Growth (forexlive.com)
• Yellen Vs. Geithner – Two Views (wallstreetpit.com)
• What Do Reserve Currencies Mean To You? (wallstreetpit.com)
• Geithner urges Congress to back IMF, World Bank (rawstory.com)
• China Advisor Says Geithner Told Him No Tools Left For QE3 (forexlive.com)