Monthly Archives: February 2014
02/04/2014 by Tyler Durden
Today’s modest bounce in stocks – considerably removed after-hours – does not provide much hope for those looking to buy the dip with the Dow still down over 1000 points year-to-date. In fact, as we discuss below, troubling news just continues to pour in from all over the world… consider the following…
Submitted by Michael Snyder of The Economic Collapse blog,
Overall, the Dow has now fallen more than 1000 points from the peak of the market (16,588.25) back in late December. This is the first time that we have seen the Dow drop below its 200-day moving average in more than a year, and there are many that believe that this is just the beginning of a major stock market decline. Meanwhile, things are even worse in other parts of the world. For example, the Nikkei is now down about 1700 points from its 2013 high. This is causing havoc all over Asia, and the sharp movement that we have been seeing in the USD/JPY is creating a tremendous amount of anxiety among Forex traders. For those that are not interested in the technical details, what all of this means is that global financial markets are starting to become extremely unstable.
Unfortunately, there does not appear to be much hope on the horizon for investors. In fact, troubling news just continues to pour in from all over the planet. Just consider the following…
-Major currencies all over South America continue to collapse.
-Massive central bank intervention has done little to slow down the currency collapse in Turkey.
-Investors pulled more than 6 billion dollars out of emerging market equity funds last week alone.
-The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) has risen above 20 for the first time in four months.
-Last month, new manufacturing orders in the United States declined at the fastest pace that we have seen since December 1980.
-Real disposable income in the United States has just experienced the largest year over year drop that we have seen since 1974.
-In January, vehicle sales for Ford were down 7.5 percent and vehicle sales for GM were down 12 percent. Both companies are blaming bad weather.
-A major newspaper in the UK is warning that “growing problems in the Chinese banking system could spill over into a wider financial crisis“.
-U.S. Treasury Secretary Jack Lew is warning that the federal government could hit the debt ceiling by the end of this month if Congress does not act.
-It is being reported that Dell Computer plans to lay off more than 15,000 workers.
-The IMF recently said that the the probability that the global economy will fall into a deflation trap “may now be as high as 20%“.
-The Baltic Dry Index is now down 50 percent from its December highs.
If our economic troubles continue to mount, could we be facing a global “financial avalanche” fairly quickly?
That is what some very prominent analysts believe.
Below, I have posted quotes from five men that are greatly respected in the financial world. What they have to say is quite chilling…
#1 Doug Casey: “Now is a very good time to start thinking financially because I’m afraid that this year, in 2014, we’re going to go back into the financial hurricane. We’ve been in the eye of the storm since 2009, but now we’re going to go back into the trailing edge of the storm, and it’s going to be much longer lasting and much worse and much different than what we had in 2008 and 2009.”
#2 Bill Fleckenstein: “The [price-to-earnings ratio] is 16, 17 times earnings,” Fleckenstein said on Tuesday’s episode of “Futures Now.” “Why would you pay 16 times for an S&P company? I don’t care about where rates are, because rates are artificially suppressed. Why isn’t that worth 11 or 12 times? Just by that analysis, you’d be down by a quarter or 30 percent. So there’s a huge amount of downside.”
#3 Egon von Greyerz of Matterhorn Asset Management: “Nothing goes (down) in a straight line, but the emerging market problems will accelerate and it will spread to the very overbought and the very overvalued stock markets and economies in the West.
So stock markets are now starting a secular bear trend which will last for many years, and we could see falls of massive proportions. At the end of this, the wealth that has been created in the last few decades will be destroyed.”
#4 Peter Schiff: “The crisis is imminent,” Schiff said. “I don’t think Obama is going to finish his second term without the bottom dropping out. And stock market investors are oblivious to the problems.”
“We’re broke, Schiff added. “We owe trillions. Look at our budget deficit; look at the debt to GDP ratio, the unfunded liabilities. If we were in the Eurozone, they would kick us out.”
#5 Gerald Celente: “This selloff in the emerging markets, with their currencies going down and their interest rates going up, it’s going to be disastrous and there are going to be riots everywhere…
…So as the decline in their economies accelerates, you are going to see the civil unrest intensify.”
Those that do not believe that we could ever see “civil unrest” on the streets of America should take note of what just happened in Seattle.
After the Seahawks won the Super Bowl, fans celebrated by “lighting fires, damaging historic buildings and ripping down street signs“.
If that is how average Americans will behave when something good happens, how will they act when the economy totally collapses and nobody can find work for an extended period of time?
We are rapidly approaching another great financial crisis. Unfortunately, we didn’t learn any of the lessons that we should have learned last time. It is being projected that the debt of the federal government will more than double during the Obama years, the “too big to fail banks” have collectively gotten 37 percent larger over the past five years, and the big banks have become more financially reckless than ever before.
When the next great financial crisis arrives (and without a doubt it is inevitable), millions more Americans will lose their jobs and millions more Americans will lose their homes.
Now is not the time to be buying lots of expensive new toys, going on expensive vacations or piling up lots of debt.
Now is the time to build up an emergency fund and to do whatever you can to get prepared for the great storm that is coming.
As you can see from the financial headlines, time is rapidly running out.
by Howard Kunstler via Kunstler.com,
The rot moves from the margins to the center, but the disease moves from the center to the margins. That is what has happened in the realm of money in recent weeks due to the sustained mispricing of the cost of credit by central banks, led by the US Federal Reserve. Along the way, that outfit has managed to misprice just about everything else — stocks, houses, exotic securities, food commodities, precious metals, fine art. Oil is mispriced as well, on the low side, since oil production only gets more expensive and complex these days while it depends more on mispriced borrowed money. That situation will be corrected by scarcity, as oil companies discover that real capital is unavailable. And then the oil will become scarce. The “capital” circulating around the globe now is a squishy, gelatinous substance called “liquidity.” All it does is gum up markets. But eventually things do get unstuck.
Meanwhile, the rot of epic mispricing expresses itself in collapsing currencies and the economies they are supposed to represent: India, Turkey, Argentina, Hungary so far. Italy, Spain, and Greece would be in that club if they had currencies of their own. For now, they just do without driving their cars and burn furniture to stay warm this winter. Automobile use in Italy is back to 1970s levels of annual miles-driven. That’s quite a drop.
Before too long, the people will be out in the streets engaging with the riot police, as in Ukraine. This is long overdue, of course, and probably cannot be explained rationally since extreme changes in public sentiment are subject to murmurations, the same unseen forces that direct flocks of birds and schools of fish that all at once suddenly turn in a new direction without any detectable communication.
Who can otherwise explain the amazing placidity of the sore beset American public, beyond the standard trope about bread, circuses, and superbowls? Last night they were insulted with TV commercials hawking Maserati cars. Behold, you miserable nation of overfed SNAP card swipers, the fruits of wealth and celebrity! Savor your unworthiness while you await the imminent spectacles of the Sochi Olympics and Oscar Night! Things at the margins may yet interrupt the trance at the center. My guess is that true wickedness brews unseen in the hidden, unregulated markets of currency and interest rate swaps.
The big banks are so deep in this derivative ca-ca that eyeballs are turning brown in the upper level executive suites. Notable bankers are even jumping out of windows, hanging themselves in back rooms, and blowing their brains out in roadside ditches. Is it not strange that there are no reports on the contents of their suicide notes, if they troubled to leave one? (And is it not unlikely that they would all exit the scene without a word of explanation?) One of these, William Broeksmit, a risk manager for Deutsche Bank, was reportedly engaged in “unwinding positions” for that that outfit, which holds over $70 trillion in swap paper. For scale, compare that number with Germany’s gross domestic product of about $3.4 trillion and you could get a glimmer of the mischief in motion out there. Did poor Mr. Broeksmit despair of his task?
Physicist Stephen Hawking declared last week that black holes are not exactly what people thought they were. Stuff does leak back out of them. This will soon be proven in the unwinding derivatives trades when most of the putative wealth associated with swaps and such disappears across the event horizon of bad faith, and little dribbles of their prior existence leak back out in bankruptcy proceedings and political upheaval.
The event horizon of bad faith is the exact point where the credulous folk of this modern age, from high to low, discover that their central banks only pretend to be regulating agencies, that they ride a juggernaut of which nobody is really in control. The illusion of control has been the governing myth since the Lehman moment in 2008. We needed desperately to believe that the authorities had our backs. They don’t even have their own fronts.
Is the money world at that threshold right now? One thing seems clear: nobody is able to turn back the plummeting currencies. They go where they will and their failures must be infectious as the greater engine of world trade seizes up. Who will write the letters of credit that make international commerce possible? Who will trust whom? When do people seriously start to starve and reach for the pitchforks? When does the action move from Kiev to London, New York, Frankfurt, and Paris?
This week the SubseaIQ team added 4 new projects and updated 22 projects. You can see all the updates made over any time period via the Project Update History search. The latest offshore field develoment news and activities are listed below for your convenience.
Jan 31, 2014 – Production from the Guendalina field remains down according the 4Q 2013 Operational Update provided by Mediterranean Oil & Gas (MOG). Low manifold pressure necessitated the shut-in of the GUE 3ss well in August 2013. Eni, the field operator, determined that the reservoir was in good condition and that a blockage in the production string was causing the poor performance. Remedial operations were undertaken in December but progress was hampered by poor weather conditions in the Adriatic. Intervention operations were completed Jan. 11, 2014 and the well returned to a low-production rate. The flow rate will improve as the well cleans up. Eni and MOG maintain 80% and 20% stakes respectively.
Project Details: Guendalina
Asia – SouthEast
Jan 31, 2014 – In December 2013, Roc Oil submitted a Field Development Plan (FDP) to Petronas concerning the Bentara field in the Balai Cluster offshore Malaysia. The FDP outlines a two-phase development and approval is being sought for the first phase which involves early production utilizing the existing wells and facilities established during the pre-development phase. The company expects the FDP to be approved during 1Q 2014.
Project Details: Balai Cluster
Jan 31, 2014 – Salamander Energy sees production from the Bualuang field recommencing in early February after it was stopped in November 2013 when bad weather caused the Rubicon Vantage FPSO to drift off location and damage the production riser. Since then, divers have completed a full inspection and replacement riser and spool materials are being moved to location. While progress is being made, poor weather conditions have slowed repair efforts. A development drilling program being carried out by the Atwood Mako (400′ ILC) has not been interrupted by the event and two production wells have been drilled since the shutdown. Salamander’s production forecast for the field remains unchanged and is expected to average between 13,000 and 16,000 boepd.
Project Details: Bualuang
Jan 31, 2014 – Pan Pacific Petroleum was advised by Premier Oil, operator of Block 07/03 offshore Vietnam, that the Ocean General (mid-water semisub) spudded the 07/03-CD-1X wildcat well on Jan. 28, 2014. The well is being drilled in 426 feet of water and is expected to reach the proposed depth of 12,522 feet. The well is designed to test the Miocene clastic reservoirs of the Silver Silago prospect.
Project Details: Ca Duc (Silver Sillago)
Jan 31, 2014 – Through an agreement with Mubadala Petroleum, KrisEnergy acquired a 60% operating interest in Block G3/48 in the Gulf of Thailand. The block covers an area of 1,126 square miles with water depths ranging from 65 to 165 feet. Partners in the block include Tap Energy (30%) and Northern Gulf Oil Company (10%). The agreement is subject to the customary regulatory approvals.
Project Details: Pathum
MidEast – Persian Gulf
Jan 31, 2014 – Technip was awarded an engineering, procurement, construction and installation (EPCI) contract by Dubai Petroleum Establishment (DPE) concerning the Jalilah B field development project. Work scope includes construction and installation of the Jalilah B platform, the addition of 13 new risers on existing platforms and the installation of 68 miles of 6 to 24-inch pipeline. The project will be executed from Technip’s fast-track center in Dubai and is scheduled for completion in the second half of 2014.
Project Details: Al Jalilah
Europe – North Sea
Jan 31, 2014 – Lundin Petroleum is in the process of completing a sidetrack well at its Torvastad prospect in license PL501 near the Johan Sverdrup discovery. Well 16/2-20A is being drilled by the Island Innovator (mid-water semisub) to investigate the potential of an up-flank continuous Jurassic reservoir. Oil shows were seen in the main target but reservoir quality was poor. Lundin operates the license and carries 40% stake. Its partners include Statoil (40%) and Maersk Oil Norway (20%).
Project Details: Torvastad
Jan 30, 2014 – Through an oversubscribed share placing, Parkmead Group was able to raise $66 million in an effort to bolster some of its activities in the UK North Sea. Parkmead, operator of the Athena field in License P1293, will use a portion of the funds to enhance production from the field. The group plans to carry out a workover of the P4 well. If successful, the operation could increase field production to 9,000 bopd. Locations are also being evaluated for an additional production well that has the potential to add 1,100 bopd to the production stream. Proceeds from the placing will also allow the group to test several prosepcts in its portfolio such as Skerryvore, Possum, Blackadder and Davaar. Well planning is already underway for Skerryvore.
Project Details: Athena
Jan 30, 2014 – Operator Faroe Petroleum announced an oil and gas discovery at its Novus prospect in license PL645 in the Norwegian Sea. Well 6507/10-2S was drilled by the West Navigator (UDW drillship) to a depth of 9,701 feet. A 39-foot net gas column and 41-foot net oil column were encountered in high quality Garn reservoir. Secondary targets in the Ile and Tilje formations proved to be water wet. Results from pressure and fluid sampling indicate the discovery reservoirs hold between 6 and 15 MMboe. Additionally, the results will be integrated into the existing geologic model of the area to de-risk the remaining prospects and leads in the license.
Project Details: Novus
Asia – Caspian
Jan 31, 2014 – Production activities at the West Chirag platform are underway according to the BP-operated Azerbaijan International Operating Company (AIOC). The platform is part of the Azeri-Chirag-Guneshli (ACG) development in the Azerbaijan sector of the Caspian Sea. On January 28, 2014 oil began flowing from the J05 development well. Production will increase throughout the year as additional wells are brought on line. As a whole, the ACG fields have produced over 2.3 billion barrels and, with future development, is expected to be a viable project for many decades. The West Chirag platform was installed in 557 feet of water and has a designed processing capacity of 183 thousand bopd. Startup of West Chirag is the final phase of the Chirag Oil Project and is expected to greatly enhance the deliverability of the ACG development.
Project Details: Azeri-Chirag-Gunashli
Jan 31, 2014 – Karoon Gas reports that total depth has been reached at the Grace-1 exploration well in license WA-314-P offshore Western Australia. The well was drilled by the Transocean Legend (mid-water semisub) to a measured depth of 16,630 feet. High gas levels seen while drilling and pressure samples taken from logging while drilling (LWD) equipment Karoon and ConocoPhillips (the operator) to run wireline logs over the zone of interest. Logging and sampling results are expected during the coming weeks.
Project Details: Grace
S. America – Brazil
Jan 31, 2014 – Shell announced its intention to divest 23% of its interest in the Parque das Conchas development to Qatar Petroleum International for approximately $1 billion. Once the agreement is approved by Brazilian regulators, Shell’s operating interest will be reduced to 50%. Parque das Conchas currently produces at a rate of 50,000 boepd since the Ostra and Argonauta B-West fields were brought on-stream in 2009 as part of Phase 1. Phase 2 was completed in October 2013 when oil production commenced at Argonauta O-North. In July 2013, Shell and its partner ONGC (27%) made the final investment decision regarding Phase 3 and will consist of subsea facilities tying the Argonauta O-South and Massa fields to the Espirito Santo FPSO.
Project Details: Parque das Conchas (BC-10)