EIA issued its Annual Energy Outlook 2013 (AEO2013) Reference case, which highlights a growth in total U.S. energy production that exceeds growth in total U.S. energy consumption through 2040.
“EIA’s updated Reference case shows how evolving consumer preferences, improved technology, and economic changes are pushing the nation toward more domestic energy production, greater vehicle efficiency, greater use of clean energy, and reduced energy imports,” said EIA Administrator Adam Sieminski.
“This combination has markedly reduced projected energy-related carbon dioxide emissions,” said Mr. Sieminski.
AEO2013 offers a number of key findings, including:
Crude oil production, especially from tight oil plays, rises sharply over the next decade. Domestic oil production will rise to 7.5 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2019, up from less than 6 million bpd in 2011.
Motor gasoline consumption will be less than previously estimated. Compared with the last AEO, the AEO2013 shows lower gasoline use, reflecting the introduction of more stringent corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) standards. Growth in diesel fuel consumption will be moderated by the increased use of natural gas in heavy-duty vehicles.
The United States becomes a net exporter of natural gas earlier than estimated a year ago. Because quickly rising natural gas production outpaces domestic consumption, the United States will become a net exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in 2016 and a net exporter of total natural gas (including via pipelines) in 2020.
Renewable fuel use grows at a much faster rate than fossil fuel use. The share of electricity generation from renewables grows to 16 percent in 2040 from 13 percent in 2011.
Net imports of energy decline. The decline reflects increased domestic production of both petroleum and natural gas, increased use of biofuels, and lower demand resulting from the adoption of new vehicle fuel efficiency standards and rising energy prices. The net import share of total U.S. energy consumption falls to 9 percent in 2040 from 19 percent in 2011.
The AEO2013 Reference case focuses on the drivers that shape U.S. energy markets under the assumption that current laws and regulations remain generally unchanged throughout the projection period. The complete AEO2013, to be released in early 2013, will include many alternative cases in recognition of the uncertainty inherent in making projections about energy markets, which in part arises from assumptions about policies and other market drivers such as trends in prices and economic growth.
- Key updates made for the AEO2013 Reference case include the following:
- Extension of the projection period through 2040, an additional 5 years beyond AEO2012.
- A revised outlook for industrial production to reflect the impacts of increased shale gas production and lower natural gas prices, which result in faster growth for industrial production and energy consumption. The industries affected include, in particular, bulk chemicals and primary metals.
- Adoption of final model year 2017 to 2025 greenhouse gas emissions and CAFE standards for light-duty vehicles (LDVs), which increases the projected combined fuel economy of new LDVs to 47.3 mpg in 2025.
- Updated modeling of LNG export potential.
- Updated power generation unit costs that capture recent cost declines for some renewable technologies, which tend to lead to greater use of renewable generation, particularly solar technologies.
- The Future Of US Energy In 4 Charts (businessinsider.com)
- EIA: Here’s What Oil Prices Will Do For The Next 30 Years (businessinsider.com)
- US Energy Mix to 2040 per EIA (simplerna.com)
Connect the Dots :: Obama Administration Approves ,Roadmap for Utility-Scale Solar Energy Development on Public Lands
10/12/2012 Contact: Blake Androff (DOI) 202-208-6416
David Quick (BLM) 202-912-7413
WASHINGTON, D.C. – As part of President Obama’s all-of-the-above energy strategy to expand domestic energy production, Secretary of the Interior Ken Salazar today finalized a program for spurring development of solar energy on public lands in six western states. The Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (PEIS) for solar energy development provides a blueprint for utility-scale solar energy permitting in Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico and Utah by establishing solar energy zones with access to existing or planned transmission, incentives for development within those zones, and a process through which to consider additional zones and solar projects.
Today’s action builds on the Administration’s historic progress to facilitate renewable energy development. On Tuesday, with the authorization of the Chokecherry and Sierra Madre Wind Energy Project site in Wyoming, Interior reached the President’s goal of authorizing 10,000 megawatts of renewable power on public lands. Since 2009, Interior has authorized 33 renewable energy projects, including 18 utility-scale solar facilities, 7 wind farms and 8 geothermal plants, with associated transmission corridors and infrastructure. When built, these projects will provide enough electricity to power more than 3.5 million homes, and support 13,000 construction and operations jobs according to project developer estimates.
“Energy from sources like wind and solar have doubled since the President took office, and with today’s milestone, we are laying a sustainable foundation to keep expanding our nation’s domestic energy resources,” said Secretary Salazar, who signed today’s Record of Decision at an event in Las Vegas, Nevada with Senator Harry Reid. “This historic initiative provides a roadmap for landscape-level planning that will lead to faster, smarter utility-scale solar development on public lands and reflects President Obama’s commitment to grow American made energy and create jobs.”
The Solar PEIS establishes an initial set of 17 Solar Energy Zones (SEZs), totaling about 285,000 acres of public lands, that will serve as priority areas for commercial-scale solar development, with the potential for additional zones through ongoing and future regional planning processes (emphasis mine). If fully built out, projects in the designated areas could produce as much as 23,700 megawatts of solar energy, enough to power approximately 7 million American homes. The program also keeps the door open, on a case-by-case basis, for the possibility of carefully sited solar projects outside SEZs on about 19 million acres in “variance” areas. The program also includes a framework for regional mitigation plans, and to protect key natural and cultural resources the program excludes a little under 79 million acres that would be inappropriate for solar development based on currently available information.
“The Solar PEIS sets forth an enduring, flexible blueprint for developing utility-scale solar projects in the right way, and in the right places, on our public lands,” said David J. Hayes, Deputy Secretary of the Interior. “Never before has the Interior Department worked so closely and collaboratively with the industry, conservationists and sportsmen alike to develop a sound, long-term plan for generating domestic energy from our nation’s sun-drenched public lands.”
The signing of the Record of Decision today follows the July release of the Final PEIS, a comprehensive analysis done in partnership with the Department of Energy that identified locations on Bureau of Land Management (BLM) lands most suitable for solar energy development. These areas are characterized by excellent solar resources, access to existing or planned transmission and relatively low conflict with biological, cultural and historic resources.
“We are proud to be a part of this initiative to cut through red tape and accelerate the development of America’s clean, renewable energy,” said Secretary of Energy Steven Chu. “There is a global race to develop renewable energy technologies—and this effort will help us win this race by expanding solar energy production while reducing permitting costs.”
Today’s action is in line with the President’s direction to continue to expand domestic energy production, safely and responsibly. Since President Obama took office, domestic oil and gas production has increased each year, with domestic oil production at an eight-year high, natural gas production at an all-time high, and foreign oil imports now accounting for less than 50 percent of the oil consumed in America – the lowest level since 1995.
March 2, 2012 | Posted by Ken Cohen
The fact is that what some call “subsidies” are legitimate provisions of the U.S. tax code that treat our industry the same as other industries. The efforts to prevent oil companies from accessing these provisions achieve nothing but raising the tax burden on the companies that find, produce and manufacture the fuels that are the foundation of the U.S. economy.
One example is the Section 199 domestic production activities provision, which exists to support new investment and employment opportunities across U.S. industries. Those who produce or manufacture items in America, including auto makers, software developers, movie producers, and newspaper publishers, qualify for it. Yet critics call this a “subsidy” for those who produce the oil and natural gas used by American consumers – this despite the fact that our industry actually gets a smaller Section 199 deduction than all other qualifying industries.
Another example is the deduction for the costs of drilling the wells to produce domestic oil and natural gas. The U.S. tax code allows companies, no matter the industry, to recover their costs in earning income. So denying or delaying the deduction of our industry’s costs – largely the salary costs of those drilling oil and gas wells – will treat our industry differently than most others. Furthermore, such measures will actually increase the costs of producing oil and natural gas in the U.S.
These are just a couple of examples of what critics are referring to when they erroneously claim that oil and gas companies receive $4 billion per year in special “subsidies” or “preferences.” When these measures are combined with other proposals to increase the industry’s taxes, they amount to an $85 billion tax hike for the U.S. oil and gas industry over the next decade – and untold consequences for U.S. energy security and global competitiveness.
What such proposals will do is increase costs for a company to manufacture a product. It is hard to see how increasing costs on manufacturers helps American consumers.
The reality is that we need to put in place the policies now that will help address our long-term energy needs. Instead of trying to convince people that standard tax provisions are actually special-interest subsidies, our nation would be better served by policies that encourage more energy development so that industry can increase supplies to the market.
We could start by increasing access to America’s own resources.
Currently, about 85 percent of all U.S. offshore areas remain off-limits to oil and gas development. As I’ve mentioned before, a recent study shows that polices that support greater access to resources in the U.S. and Canada would not only increase domestic supplies, but would also create 1.4 million jobs and generate more than $800 billion in government revenue by 2030.
One of those job creators is the Keystone XL pipeline, but that’s not the only reason it should be approved. In Canada, our industry is developing oil sands that are giving us access to one of the world’s largest-known reserves of energy – approximately 170 billion recoverable barrels, or the energy equivalent to fueling today’s North American vehicle fleet for about 35 years. The energy industry’s innovative techniques and technologies are allowing us to develop these resources in safe and environmentally responsible ways.
If our nation’s leaders were to consider our industry’s contributions to the economy and to government revenue, the conversation could be more constructive. U.S. oil and natural gas companies contribute much more to the U.S. economy than the oil and gas that fuel it. For example, in 2011, ExxonMobil alone contributed $72 billion to the U.S. economy by paying our taxes, producing returns for our shareholders, paying our employees and investing in energy projects around the country. Our $12 billion in U.S. taxes to local, state and federal governments in 2011 exceeded our U.S. operating earnings by more than $2 billion.
I encourage you to compare what’s being said with what’s actually being done when it comes to policies that support domestic energy development. There’s a disconnect between the two.
- Shale Energy Regulation Threatens Development And Jobs (energyindependenceforstates.com)
- API: Obama promises fuel but produces hot air (junkscience.com)
- Michael J. Economides: In 2012, Let’s Align U.S. Energy Policy with Global Reality (junkscience.com)
The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) released two nationwide resource assessments showing that waves and tidal currents off the nation’s coasts could contribute significantly to the United States’ total annual electricity production, further diversify the nation’s energy portfolio, and provide clean, renewable energy to coastal cities and communities.
These new wave and tidal resource assessments, combined with ongoing analyses of the technologies and other resource assessments, show that water power, including conventional hydropower and wave, tidal, and other water power resources, can potentially provide 15% of our nation’s electricity by 2030. The reports represent the most rigorous analysis undertaken to date to accurately define the magnitude and location of America’s ocean energy resources. The information in these resource assessments can help to further develop the country’s significant ocean energy resources, create new industries and new jobs in America, and secure U.S. leadership in an emerging global market.
The United States uses about 4,000 terawatt hours (TWh) of electricity per year. DOE estimates that the maximum theoretical electric generation that could be produced from waves and tidal currents is approximately 1,420 TWh per year, approximately one-third of the nation’s total annual electricity usage. Although not all of the resource potential identified in these assessments can realistically be developed, the results still represent major opportunities for new water power development in the United States, highlighting specific opportunities to expand on the 6% of the nation’s electricity already generated from renewable hydropower resources.
The two reports—”Mapping and Assessment of the United States Ocean Wave Energy Resource” and “Assessment of Energy Production Potential from Tidal Streams in the United States”—calculate the maximum kinetic energy available from waves and tides off U.S. coasts that could be used for future energy production, and which represent largely untapped opportunities for renewable energy development in the United States.
The West Coast, including Alaska and Hawaii, has especially high potential for wave energy development, while significant opportunities for wave energy also exist along the East Coast. Additionally, parts of both the West and East Coasts have strong tides that could be tapped to produce energy.
Earlier this year, DOE announced the availability of its national tidal resource database, which maps the maximum theoretically available energy in the nation’s tidal streams. This database contributed to the “Assessment of Energy Production Potential from Tidal Streams in the United States” report, prepared by Georgia Tech.
The wave energy assessment report, titled “Mapping and Assessment of the United States Ocean Wave Energy Resource,” was prepared by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), with support and data validation from researchers at Virginia Tech and DOE’s National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). The report describes the methods used to produce geospatial data and to map the average annual and monthly significant wave height, wave energy period, mean direction, and wave power density in the coastal United States. NREL incorporated the data into a new marine and hydrokinetic energy section in their U.S. Renewable Resource atlas.
In addition to the wave and tidal resource assessments released , DOE plans to release additional resource assessments for ocean current, ocean thermal gradients, and new hydropower resources in 2012. To support the development of technologies that can tap into these vast water power resources, DOE’s Water Power Program is undertaking a detailed technical and economic assessment of a wide range of water power technologies in order to more accurately predict the opportunities and costs of developing and deploying these innovative technologies. The Program is currently sponsoring over 40 demonstration projects that will advance the commercial readiness of these systems, provide first-of-a-kind, in-water performance data that will validate cost-of-energy predictions, and identify pathways for large cost reductions.
These resource assessments, techno-economic assessments, and technology demonstration projects are critical elements of DOE’s strategy to capture the very real opportunities associated with water power development, and to further define the path to supplying 15% of the nation’s electricity through water power technologies.
DOE’s Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy invests in clean energy technologies that strengthen the economy, protect the environment, and reduce dependence on foreign oil. DOE’s Water Power Program is paving the way for industry and government to make sound investment and policy decisions about the deployment of renewable water power technologies by quantifying the nation’s theoretically available water power resources.
- DCENR Submits WestWave Project for EU Funding (Ireland)
- Turbines to Harness Tidal Energy in Admiralty Inlet (USA)
- OPT Announces Presentation at Rodman & Renshaw Annual Global Investment Conference (USA)
- UK: NREL Installs Tidal Power Vessel in Humber
- UK: Pelamis Wave Power Device Set Sail for Orkney
- UK: Rolls-Royce Hits 100MWh Milestone with Tidal Technology (mb50.wordpress.com)
- UK: Siemens Increases Stake in Tidal Energy Company Marine Current Turbines (mb50.wordpress.com)
- Wave Power Wants Piece Of Newport Beach Surf (earthtechling.com)