Experts say institutions will grab deposits without warning28 Sep 2013 by Clark Kent
With the United States facing a $17 trillion debt and an acidic debate in Washington over raising that debt limit on top of a potential government shutdown, Congress could mimic recent European action to let banks initiate a “bail-in” to blunt future failures, experts say.
Previously the federal government has taken taxes from consumers, or borrowed the money, to hand out to troubled banks. This could be a little different, and could allow banks to reach directly into consumers’ bank accounts for their cash.
Authority to allow bank “bail-ins” would be in lieu of approving any future taxpayer bailouts of banks that would be in dire need of recapitalization in order to survive.
Some financial experts contend that banks already have the legal authority to confiscate depositors’ money without warning, and at their discretion.
Financial analyst Jim Sinclair warned that the U.S. banks most likely to be “bailed-in” by their depositors are those institutions that received government bail-out funds in 2008-2009.
Such a “bail-in” means all savings of individuals over the insured amount would be confiscated to offset such a failure.
“Bail-ins are coming to North America without any doubt, and will be remembered as the ‘Great Leveling,’ of the ‘great Flushing’ (of Lehman Brothers),” Sinclair said. “Not only can it happen here, but it will happen here.
“It stands on legal grounds by legal precedent both in the U.S., Canada and the U.K.”
Sinclair is chairman and chief executive officer of Tanzania Royalty Exploration Corp. and is the son of Bertram Seligman, whose family started Goldman Sachs, Solomon Brothers, Lehman Brothers, Bache Group and other major investment banking firms.
Some of the major banks which received federal bailout money included Bank of America, Citigroup and JPMorgan Chase.
“When major banks fail, they are going to bail them out by grabbing the money that is in your bank accounts,” according to financial expert Michael Snyder. “This is going to absolutely shatter faith in the banking system and it is actually going to make it far more likely that we will see major bank failures all over the Western world.”
Given the dire financial straits the U.S. finds itself in, these financial experts say that Congress could look at the example of the European Parliament, which recently started to consider action that would allow banks to confiscate depositors’ holdings above 100,000 euros. Generally, funds up to that level are insured.
Finance ministers of the 27-member European Union in June had approved forcing bondholders, shareholders and large depositors with more than 100,000 euros in their accounts to make the financial sacrifice before turning to the government for help with taxpayer funds.
Depositors with less than 100,000 euros would be protected. Considering protection of small depositors a top priority, the E.U. ministers took pride in saying that their action would shield them.
“The E.U. has made a big step towards putting in place the most comprehensive framework for dealing with bank crises in the world,” said Michel Barnier, E.U. commissioner for internal market and services.
The plan as approved outlines a hierarchy of rescuing struggling banks. The first will be bondholders, followed by shareholders and then large depositors.
Among large depositors, there is a hierarchy of whose money would be selected first, with small and medium-sized businesses being protected like small depositors.
“This agreement will effectively move us from ad hoc ‘bail-outs’ to structured and clearly defined ‘bail-ins,’” said Michael Noonan, Ireland’s finance minister.
The European Parliament is expected to finalize the plan by the end of the year.
The purpose of this “bail-in,” patterned after the Cyprus model, is to offset the need for continued taxpayer bailouts that have come under increasing criticism of the more economically well-off countries such as Germany.
Last March, Cyprus had agreed to tap large depositors at its two leading banks for some 10 billion euros in an effort to obtain another 10 billion European Union bailout.
While this action prevented the collapse of Cyprus’ two top banks, the Bank of Cyprus and Popular Bank of Cyprus, it greatly upset depositors with savings more than 100,000 euros.
WND recently revealed that the practice of “bail-ins” by Cyprus a year ago was beginning to spread to other nations as large depositors began to see their balances plunge literally overnight.
A “bail-in,” as opposed to a bailout that countries especially in Europe have been seeking from the International Monetary Fund and the European Union, is a recognition that such outside monetary injections won’t be forthcoming.
Sinclair said that the recent confiscation of customer deposits in Cyprus was not a “one-off, desperate idea of a few Eurozone ‘troika’ officials scrambling to salvage their balance sheets.”
“A joint paper by the U.S. federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) and the Bank of England (BOE) dated December 10, 2012 shows, that these plans have been long in the making, that they originated with the G20 Financial Stability Board in Basel, Switzerland, and that the result will be to deliver clear title to the banks of depositor funds,” Sinclair said.
He pointed that while few depositors are aware, banks legally own the depositors’ funds as soon as they are put in the bank.
“Our money becomes the bank’s, and we become unsecured creditors holding IOUs or promises to pay,” Sinclair said.
“But until now, the bank has been obligated to pay the money back on demand in the form of cash,” he said. “Under the FDIC-BOE plan, our IOUs will be converted into ‘bank equity.’ The bank will get the money and we will get stock in the bank.”
“With any luck,” Sinclair said, “we may be able to sell the stock to someone else, but when and at what price? Most people keep a deposit account so they can have ready cash to pay the bills.”
Such plans already are being used, or under consideration, in New Zealand, Poland, Canada and several other countries.
The American Waterways Operators, National Waterways Conference, Waterways Council, Inc., and 15 other national organizations submitted a letter to President Obama and the Federal Emergency Management Agency requesting a presidential declaration of emergency and seeking “immediate assistance in averting an economic catastrophe in the heartland of the United States.”
The request was made pursuant to section 501(b) of the Stafford Act.
The letter calls attention to the worsening situation on the Mississippi River which has already seen near historic low water levels that have restricted barge traffic on the nation’s critical water transportation artery since this summer. The existing crisis has been heightened even further as the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers has begun the reduction of water to the Mississippi River from dams on the upper Missouri River.
Alarmed that as the effects of reduced flows from the Missouri River are felt downstream and rock pinnacles are exposed near Thebes and Grand Tower, Illinois, significantly impairing the flow of commerce by mid-December, the groups are requesting that the President declare an emergency and direct the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to immediately remove the rock pinnacles and release such water from the Missouri River reservoirs as is necessary to preserve a nine-foot channel on the Mississippi River to sustain commercial navigation.
The groups warn that the economic impacts of a Mississippi River closure would be dire, placing $7 billion in key products such as corn, grain, coal, petroleum, chemicals and other products at risk in December and January alone, including:
– Over 7 million tons of agricultural products worth $2.3 billion;
– Over 1.7 million tons of chemical products worth $1.8 billion;
– 1.3 million tons of petroleum products worth over $1.3 billion;
– Over 700,000 tons of crude oil worth $534 million; and
– 3.8 million tons of coal worth $192 million.
Recognizing the importance of the Mississippi River as a critical national transportation artery and economic cornerstone, Missouri Governor Jay Nixon, Illinois Governor Pat Quinn, and Iowa Governor Terry Branstad, as well as 15 U.S. Senators and 62 members of the U.S. House of Representatives, have written the Administration calling attention to the severity of the situation and urging action to keep the river open to navigation.
“The time for action is now, because once the water levels on the Mississippi drop, this will be an even harder problem to solve,” said Tom Allegretti, AWO’s President & CEO. “An emergency declaration is needed now to allow the swift removal of the rock pinnacles and assurance of sufficient flows from the Missouri River while the rock removal work is taking place, both needed measures to ensure the Mississippi River can remain open at a sufficient depth to keep waterborne commerce flowing.”
“Understanding the consequences of further impairment, or certainly cessation of Mississippi River navigation during the critical winter months, this situation necessitates immediate action,” said Amy Larson, NWC President & CEO. “This can be done in a balanced and measured manner respecting other river interests, but it simply must be done.”
“The ripple effect of failing to efficiently move $7 billion in key commodities would be staggering,” said Mike Toohey, President and CEO of WCI. “The most immediate effects would be felt up and down the river, but would spread quickly from those that work on the river to those that ship on the river to manufacturing workers and eventually to all of us as consumers. This is an economic disaster in the making and the Administration needs to act now to stop it.”
- Businesses still worried about drought’s effect on Missouri, Mississippi rivers (thegazette.com)
- Senators ask Obama to protect river (rapidcityjournal.com)
- Drought-Parched Mississippi River is Halting Barges – Bloomberg (bloomberg.com)
- Ag in the AM: Mississippi River levels falling (wqad.com)
Texas factory activity continued to increase in July, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, fell from 15.5 to 12, suggesting slightly slower output growth.
Other measures of current manufacturing activity also indicated slower growth in July. The new orders index was positive for the second month in a row, although it moved down from 7.9 to 1.4. Similarly, the shipments index posted its second consecutive positive reading but edged down from 9.6 to 7.4. The capacity utilization index came in at 8.7 after rising to 13.3 last month.
Perceptions of broader economic conditions were mixed in July. The general business activity plummeted to -13.2 after climbing into positive territory in June. Nearly 30 percent of manufacturers noted a worsening in the level of business activity in July, pushing the index to its lowest reading in 10 months. The company outlook index remained positive for the third month in a row but fell from 5.5 to 1.6.
Labor market indicators reflected stronger labor demand. Employment growth continued in July, although the index edged down from 13.7 to 11.8. Twenty-one percent of firms reported hiring new workers, while 10 percent reported layoffs. The hours worked index was 4.1, up slightly from its June reading.
Price pressures were largely unchanged in July, although compensation costs rose at a faster pace. The raw materials price index held steady at 3, suggesting only slight increases in input costs this summer after strong upward pressure earlier in the year. Selling prices fell for the fifth consecutive month in July; the finished goods price index was -5.5, virtually unchanged from last month’s reading. The wages and benefits index rose nearly 10 points to 22.9, largely due to a marked rise in the share of firms noting increased compensation costs. Looking ahead, 36 percent of respondents anticipate further increases in raw materials prices over the next six months, while 25 percent expect higher finished goods prices.
Expectations regarding future business conditions were less optimistic in July. The index of future general business activity slipped from 1.3 to -7.3, registering its first negative reading in 10 months. The index of future company outlook remained positive but fell from its June level, coming in at 5.3. Indexes for future manufacturing activity also decreased, although all remained in strong positive territory.
The Dallas Fed conducts the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey monthly to obtain a timely assessment of the state’s factory activity. Data were collected July 17–25, and 89 Texas manufacturers responded to the survey. Firms are asked whether output, employment, orders, prices and other indicators increased, decreased or remained unchanged over the previous month.
Survey responses are used to calculate an index for each indicator. Each index is calculated by subtracting the percentage of respondents reporting a decrease from the percentage reporting an increase. When the share of firms reporting an increase exceeds the share reporting a decrease, the index will be greater than zero, suggesting the indicator has increased over the prior month. If the share of firms reporting a decrease exceeds the share reporting an increase, the index will be below zero, suggesting the indicator has decreased over the prior month. An index will be zero when the number of firms reporting an increase is equal to the number of firms reporting a decrease.
More to come… Source
- Texas manufacturing activity surged in June, Fed report says (bizjournals.com)
- Texas factories boomed in June (mysanantonio.com)
We first noticed the first signs that the economy was beginning to soften about three months ago. Now the evidence of a slowdown has become so overwhelming that it is difficult to avoid the conclusion that we are headed for a recession. We cite the following as evidence.
Retail sales (both total and non-auto) have dropped for three consecutive months. This has happened only five times since 1967—-four times in 2008, and one now. Vehicle sales have tapered off with May and June being the two weakest months of the year. Consumer confidence for both the Conference Board index and the University of Michigan Survey are at their lowest levels of 2012.
On the labor front, June payroll numbers were weak once again and averaged only 75,000 in the second quarter. The latest weekly new claims for unemployment insurance jumped back up to 386,000 and the last two months have been well above the numbers seen earlier in the year.
The ISM manufacturing index for June fell 3.8 points to 49.7, its first sub-50 reading in the economic recovery. The ISM non-manufacturing index for June dropped to its lowest level since January 2010. Most recently the Philadelphia Fed Survey for July was negative (below zero) for the third consecutive month.
The small business confidence index declined in June to its lowest level since October and has now dropped in three of the last four months. Plans for capital spending and new hiring have dropped sharply.
Despite all of the talk about a housing bottom, June existing home sales fell 5.4% to its lowest level since the fall of last year. In addition mortgage applications for home purchases have been range-bound since October.
Core factory orders, while volatile on a month-to-month basis, have declined 2.6% since year-end, and the ISM numbers cited above indicate the weakness is likely to continue.
The Conference Board Index of leading indicators has declined for two of the last three months and is now up only 1.4% over a year earlier, the lowest since November of 2009, when it was climbing from recessionary numbers. The ECRI Weekly Leading Index is indicating a recession is either here now or will begin in the next few months.
The breadth and depth of the slowdown are greater than the growth pauses experienced in mid-2010 and mid-2011, and indicate a strong likelihood of recession ahead. In addition the foreign economies will be a drag as well. A number of European nations are already in recession and others are on the cusp. The debt, deficit and balance sheet problems of the EU’s southern tier are a long way from any solution, and will not remain out of the news for long. China is coming down from a major real estate and credit boom, and is not likely to avoid a hard landing. The Shanghai Composite is in a major downtrend, declining 28% since April 2011. The view that China is immune because of their unique economic system reminds us of what people were saying about Japan in 1989.
The stock market is ignoring these fundamentals as it did in early 2000 and late 2007 in the belief that the Fed can pull another rabbit out its hat. It couldn’t do it in 2000 or 2007 when it had plenty of weapons at its disposal. Now there is little that the Fed can do, although it will try since it will not get any help, as Senator Schumer so aptly pointed out at Bernanke’s Senate testimony. In sum, we believe that the stock market is in store for a huge disappointment.
- Index of U.S. Leading Indicators Falls More Than Forecast – Bloomberg (bloomberg.com)
- Economic data add to signs of slowing recovery (rep-am.com)
- 12 Signs That The Next Recession In The United States Has Already Begun (judgementofamerica.wordpress.com)
- This is what a recession really is (business.financialpost.com)
- 12 Signs Showing The Next Recession In The U.S. Is Underway (GLD, TZA, FAZ, FAS, INDEXSP:.INX) (etfdailynews.com)
- Recession Now More Likely (blogs.wsj.com)
- 12 Signs That The Next Recession In The United States Has Already Begun (investmentwatchblog.com)
All of this noise out of Greece has taken attention away from the fastly approaching U.S. fiscal cliff: the end-of-year deadline that threatens to lop off an estimated 3 to 5 percentage points off of GDP growth in 2013.
Reinhart’s note discusses the timetable regarding the fiscal cliff:
Unfortunately, there is no clear timetable for action. Congress will deal with the situation when it is good and ready to do so. And, the lessons from similar experiences in recent years suggests that such action will occur at the last minute.
But as an economist who’s getting paid to make forecasts and opinions, he shares with us the key dates that he’ll be watching. Here’s his assesment:
[T]here is a strong likelihood that there will be a lame duck session of Congress following the November election. Ideally, legislators will reach agreement on a plan which avoids the 2013 fiscal cliff and, at the same time, addresses the unsustainable longer-term course of US fiscal policy. However, given the elevated degree of gridlock in DC and the likelihood that some degree of gridlock will remain no matter what the election outcome (it is mathematically impossible for either party to achieve a filibuster proof majority in the Senate), this is an awful lot to expect during a post-election session of Congress that may last six weeks or so at most. A more likely scenario might involve a short-term extension of the major budget provisions or delayed action until debt ceiling constraints help to force a compromise agreement in early 2013. Of course, the longer the delay, the greater the likelihood that policy uncertainty will negatively impact the real economy.
- Morgan Stanley Just Slashed Its US GDP Forecast And Warned Things Could Get A Lot Worse (businessinsider.com)
- CBO Warning: Recession Will Follow 2013 ‘Fiscal Cliff’ (theatlanticwire.com)
- Fiscal cliffs, multipliers, and the myth of central bank independence (economist.com)
If you can take your eyes off the primary election coverage, watch Geithner. The US is engaged in a love trapezoid. The four corners are Beijing, Tehran, Tokyo, and Washington. Treasury Secretary Geithner is the Obama Administration’s front person. Track the news for the names of the other agents.
This is a very serious time. The pieces are linked. Some bullets as you watch the news flow.
1. The US faces the pressure of follow-through on Iran sanctions. Iran is an exporter of oil to Asia. Japan is dependent on imported oil. China is not self-sufficient. One part of this trapezoidal geometry is about oil.
2. Iran is feeling the heat from sanctions. The US wants to tighten them. It cannot do so without help from Asian “friends.”
3. China and Japan are each buyers of US Treasury securities. They each help finance the American fiscal deficit and the ongoing current-account deficits. They each want to diversify their reserves. They are not sellers, but they are reluctant additional buyers. This is truer for China than for Japan, but it is true in both cases.
4. China is glacially proceeding toward world reserve-currency status. It gradually allows its currency to strengthen against the dollar. It follows a policy that is fully rational for the Beijing oligarchs. It shrugs off political threats from Washington politicians (Schumer, Graham) who love to bash China while talking to their American constituents. China understands our political processes and our weaknesses. However, China also understands “realpolitik” and uses it. They learned US use of realpolitik from Nixon and Kissinger. Expect them to smile publicly but put some very intense private heat on Geithner.
5. Japan faces enormous economic pressure and sees the yen strength as now threatening. In order to weaken the yen, it must acquire other currency holdings in large quantity. (See the Cumberland website, www.cumber.com, for G4 central bank charts, and flip to those on the Bank of Japan. You will be able to observe how Japan expanded its balance sheet several years ago and subsequently contracted it. We expect them to expand it in 2012 as they seek to arrest yen strength.)
6. Japan is negotiating with China so that it may acquire reserve debt instruments denominated in Chinese currency. Beijing likes this because it is a step toward achieving world reserve-currency status. Geithner now worries, because the trend points toward a gradual and long-term weakening of the US position, as the world’s second (China) and third (Japan) largest economies maneuver their global positions.
7. Our Asian friends know that the US election cycle creates maximum vulnerability for the United States. That also makes circumstances more dangerous and raises risk profiles. Europe is of no help to us, given its internal crises.
We recall that a three-legged stool is a stable form. A four-legged stool is less stable. A four-legged stool with a trapezoidal top is least stable. Especially when one of the legs is Iran.
Watch Geithner in Asia and the news flow. Read between the lines, since the public statements will all be scripted and self-serving. Risk is high. Also, stay overweight energy. We are.
Read more: BI
- Forget The Election News: Keep Your Eye On Tim Geithner And The Love Trapezoid (businessinsider.com)
- The Chinese Yuan May Become A World Currency (mb50.wordpress.com)
- Tim Geithner Glitch In The Matrix Special: Will America Become Greece In Two Years – “No Risk Of That” (zerohedge.com)
- U.S. politics clash with reality over China currency (promoteliberty.wordpress.com)
- Wen calls for focus on common interests (upi.com)
With strong oil prices persisting, major energy companies are increasingly reinvesting their earnings in exploration and development of offshore oil and gas basins. Visiongain calculates capital expenditure in the MODU market will total $48.1bn in 2012.
According to the International Energy Agency, global oil demand will rise from 88 million barrels today to around 99 million barrels in 25 years time. Over this period the cost of extracting oil will be higher and production from offshore resources will not be as expensive as it was relative to development of onshore hydrocarbons.
Although new technological improvements mean fewer people will be needed on offshore oil and gas drilling rigs, the construction industry behind MODUs and assembly of related technologies is providing employment for thousands of people. For example, the Brazilian marine construction industry has emerged on a vast scale to enable its offshore industry to provide MODUs and technologies for Petrobras to meet its vast oil production targets from its offshore resources.
Most super-major oil and gas companies as well as independent oil and gas companies have each secured a share in the hydrocarbon-rich offshore regions across the globe and demand for MODUs is strong. Meanwhile, health and safety standards and technology have both improved across the industry, leading to a backlog of orders for new-build MODU.
The Mobile Offshore Drilling Units (MODU) Market 2012-2022 report includes 144 tables, charts and graphs that analyse quantify and forecast the MODU market in detail from 2012-2022 at the global level, four submarkets and for 7 regional markets. The analysis and forecasting ahs been reinforced by extensive consultation with industry experts. Two full transcripts of exclusive interviews are included from Friede & Goldman and Maxeler Technologies. The report also profiles 55 leading companies involved in the MODU market.
- Odfjell Offshore Raising up to $500M to Develop Fleet (mb50.wordpress.com)
- Offshore Drilling Industry to 2016 – Rapidly Rising Demand for Hydrocarbons Expected to Boost Offshore Drilling in Ultra-Deepwater and Harsh-weather Environments (prnewswire.com)
- UK: Ensco Ranks 1st Among Offshore Drillers by Costumer Satisfaction (mb50.wordpress.com)
- USA: Hercules Offshore Secures Contract for Newly Bought Rig (mb50.wordpress.com)
- Atwood Beacon to Drill Offshore Israel (mb50.wordpress.com)
- USA: Mr. Charlie Initiated the Modern Offshore Oil & Gas Industry, ASME Says (mb50.wordpress.com)
- ExxonMobil, OMV Petrom Strike Gas Offshore Romania (mb50.wordpress.com)
- Alaska champions $40bn pipeline plan (mb50.wordpress.com)