Deep Water Drillers Could Plunge 35%, Barclays Says
Barclays James West and Zachary Sadow explain:
Our Base case assumes dayrates continue to slide with UDW dayrates dropping to $475k and total average rates dropping 16% from our bull case. We think this is the most likely outcome as we continue to believe the market still needs to work through excess capacity and that conditions will get worse before they get better. In this environment, we anticipate utilization would drop modestly as well. Overall, we expect EPS to be below our 2015 EPS estimates by 38% (ex-HERO) and EBITDA to be 26% below our 2015 EBITDA estimates. Companies with larger portions of fleets derived from older assets would be the most impacted. Under this scenario, all companies in our coverage universe (except Rowan (RDC)) are subject to share price depreciation with an average pullback of 35% (-28% ex-[Vantage Drilling Company (VTG)]). At these levels, we would expect companies with higher leverage levels to be more impacted and see potential for financing events as equity values contract.
Under this scenario, Rowan could gain 2% while Seadrill could plummet 52%, Diamond Offshore could plunge 45%, Transocean could fall 24% and Atwood Oceanics (ATW) could drop 15%.
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Posted on January 29, 2014, in Drilling, Oil & Gas - offshore and tagged Drilling, News, Oil & Gas - offshore. Bookmark the permalink. Comments Off on Deep Water Drillers Could Plunge 35%, Barclays Says.