Daily Archives: February 1, 2012
Pacific Drilling, a growing offshore drilling company that provides global drilling services to the oil and natural gas industry through the use of ultra-deepwater drillships announced today that the Pacific Scirocco drillship commenced operations offshore Nigeria on December 31, 2011.
The drillship is contracted for an initial one-year term to a subsidiary of a French oil and gas giant, Total S.A. The contract further provides for options, to be exercised at the client’s discretion, which could result in up to four additional years of contract term.
- Nigeria: Chevron Secures Pacific Bora Drillship for Agbami Field Development
- USA: Pacific Santa Ana Drillship Hits the Water
- Pacific Drilling Secures 1 Year Contract for Pacific Scirocco Drillship in Nigeria
- Pacific Drilling Takes Delivery of New Drillship from Samsung Heavy, South Korea
- Total Enters LOI for Use of Pacific Scirocco Drillship in Nigeria
- Pacific Scirocco Drillship Commences Operations Off Nigeria (gcaptain.com)
- USA: Busy December Ahead of Pacific Drilling’s Drillships (mb50.wordpress.com)
- Dolphin Drilling to Provide Two Drillships for Anadarko’s Mozambique Operations (mb50.wordpress.com)
- Ocean Rig Bidding to Rent 5 Drillships to Petrobras, Brazil (mb50.wordpress.com)
- Drillship animation in the Gulf of Mexico (video) (mb50.wordpress.com)
- Is the Industry Ready to Drill in the Arctic? Stena Drillmax Ice Nears Delivery (mb50.wordpress.com)
- Ophir Begins with Drilling Operations Offshore Tanzania (mb50.wordpress.com)
Posted by Diego Valle-Jones on Jan 25, 2012
If you’re interested at all in what’s happening in Mexico you can’t miss the interactive map of the drug war I just made. You can link directly to cities or whole regions within Mexico and post them to Twitter and Facebook by clicking on the “Share This Map” link at the bottom of the box. You can even compare 2007 México with 2010 México and switch between drug war-related homicides and total homicides (the ones from the INEGI). If you hover over the chart you’ll get the monthly values and information on important events. To top it off you can export the monthly data to csv. You’ll need a latest generation browser to use it.
To unclutter the map and following the lead of the paper Trafficking Networks and the Mexican Drug War by Melissa Dell, I decided to only show the optimal highways (according to my own data and Google Directions) to reach the US border ports from the municipalities with the highest drug plant eradication between 1994 and 2003 and the highest 2d density estimate of drug labs based on newspaper reports of seizures. The map is a work in progress and is still missing the cocaine routes, but hopefully I’ll be able to add them shortly.
My assumptions in making the map:
- Homicides that were registered with no date of occurrence were assumed to have occurred on the month they were registered.
- The total homicide database has a cutoff date of the last day of the year for recording deaths, so for example, in 2009 there occurred 671 homicides that weren’t registered until 2010 (most occurred in December). I adjusted the 2010 database assuming the homicides were under counted by the same percentage as they were in 2009. So instead of the 25,005 homicides in the database I’m showing the adjusted number of 25,679. I used a similar adjustement at the municipality level.
- Even though the municipalities of Culiacán and Navolato are not officially a metro area I considered them one since they are only half and hour from each other and together have a million inhabitants.
The really cool thing about the map is that it makes it very easy to select regions of Mexico and link directly to them, which makes refuting mistaken claims by government officials, like the one Poiré made last year, a cinch.
In Jalisco, Colima, and Nayarit, violence was increasing systematically previous to the killing of Nacho Coronel at a rate of more than 1 death per week, or 6 extra deaths every five weeks. After his death violence remained at a high level, but it increased at a much slower rate, barely 1 death every five weeks.
Replicating the analysis with data from the state of Jalisco, the region where Nacho Coronel was killed, and even with data from Zapopan, we obtain the same results–Alejandro Poiré, Nexos
But did violence really stop increasing near Guadalajara? This should serve as a warning not to extrapolate based on a few months of observations and underlines the importance of making the data available to researchers on a prompt basis to avoid embarrassing mistakes.
There are about a million things you can analyze with the maps:
- The weird falls in homicides in Chiapas around the end 2007 and 2009.
- Why did Sinaloa end up with more drug war-related homicides than total homicides from mid 2007 until the end of 2008? (the answer will be my next post)
- The sudden increase in homicides in Nuevo León and Tamaulipas around the end of February when the Zetas and CDG (Gulf Cartel) went to war with each other.
- Perhaps you heard that México is much safer than a certain other much smaller country or sub-country region and wish to only compare certain parts of México with a similar population/shape to the much smaller country/sub-country region.
- The super secret link to the 2011 drug war-related homicides. (The size of the circles and the color scale used to fill them was annualized so it’s on the same scale as the years for which full data is available, but the numbers shown on the map correspond to the Jan-Sep data).
- Are the Zetas really the most brutal cartel as the Mexican Government and Stratfor assert? You can compare northeastern Mexico to Chihuahua and find out just how mistaken they are, both in terms of rates and total homicides.
- How the Tubutama massacre is registered as having occurred in Tubutuma according to the homicide database, but in Saric according the drug war-related homicide database
A note about drug war-related homicides
I’d be very surprised if the Mexican government had the capacity to correctly count the drug war homicides. There were big differences between the homicide databases starting in 2009 in Tijuana and in 2010 in Juárez. I tend to think of the drug war-related homicides as an independent count of a subset of firearm/extremely violent homicides based on police records rather than death certificates (independent of whether organized crime was involved or not). Looking at the whole country there has been a steady increase in the difference between INEGI homicides and the drug-war related ones.
This is not to say that the data for INEGI is without errors, besides not having registered the mass grave in Taxco and the immigrant massacre in San Fernando, there has been a steady increase in deaths of unknown intent by external injury caused by firearm. In Mexico most accidents are by transportation, most suicides by suffocation and most homicides by firearm, so a quick and dirty way to see if a more in-depth analysis is needed is to look at firearm deaths:
This is not to say all the deaths were homicides, since it would be perfectly reasonable to expect that as the availability of firearms increases, the number of accidents involving firearms increases, but the evidence does suggest that there has been an important under counting of homicides and even more so of drug war-related homicides.
Deaths of unknown injury intent in all of Mexico that were by firearm:
More – Source
P.S. You can download the source at GitHub
- Mapping the drug wars in Mexico (flowingdata.com)
- Mexico drug war has claimed 47,500 victims in five years (telegraph.co.uk)
- INVESTOR’S BUSINESS DAILY: Media May Owe Arizona Gov. Brewer An Apology As Mexico’s Drug War Spread… (pjmedia.com)
- Homicides in Mexico 2010 (r-bloggers.com)
- Does Romney Support The Drug War? (andrewsullivan.thedailybeast.com)
- Durbin: American Drug Habit Fuels War In Mexico (chicago.cbslocal.com)
- Mexico drug war violence blamed on failed U.S. drug policies and false flag gun-running ops (talesfromthelou.wordpress.com)
- THE DRUG WAR – WHICH SIDE ARE WE ON AGAIN? U.S agents HELPED Colombian drug lord ‘The Rabbit’ to l… (pjmedia.com)
- Mexico’s Drug War: Cartels Profit From U.S. Guns And Money-Laundering Help (huffingtonpost.com)
Why a Strike Is the Least Bad Option
In early October, U.S. officials accused Iranian operatives of planning to assassinate Saudi Arabia’s ambassador to the United States on American soil. Iran denied the charges, but the episode has already managed to increase tensions between Washington and Tehran. Although the Obama administration has not publicly threatened to retaliate with military force, the allegations have underscored the real and growing risk that the two sides could go to war sometime soon — particularly over Iran’s advancing nuclear program.
For several years now, starting long before this episode, American pundits and policymakers have been debating whether the United States should attack Iran and attempt to eliminate its nuclear facilities. Proponents of a strike have argued that the only thing worse than military action against Iran would be an Iran armed with nuclear weapons. Critics, meanwhile, have warned that such a raid would likely fail and, even if it succeeded, would spark a full-fledged war and a global economic crisis. They have urged the United States to rely on nonmilitary options, such as diplomacy, sanctions, and covert operations, to prevent Iran from acquiring a bomb. Fearing the costs of a bombing campaign, most critics maintain that if these other tactics fail to impede Tehran’s progress, the United States should simply learn to live with a nuclear Iran.
But skeptics of military action fail to appreciate the true danger that a nuclear-armed Iran would pose to U.S. interests in the Middle East and beyond. And their grim forecasts assume that the cure would be worse than the disease — that is, that the consequences of a U.S. assault on Iran would be as bad as or worse than those of Iran achieving its nuclear ambitions. But that is a faulty assumption. The truth is that a military strike intended to destroy Iran’s nuclear program, if managed carefully, could spare the region and the world a very real threat and dramatically improve the long-term national security of the United States.
DANGERS OF DETERRENCE
- Group urges credible US military threat to Iran – Reuters India (in.reuters.com)
- Iran Launches Spanish TV In Jab At U.S. ‘Dominance’ (huffingtonpost.com)
- Think Tank Calls On US To Deploy Another Warship To Threaten Iran (mountainrepublic.net)
- Optimistic UN nuclear team plans new Iran trip (cbsnews.com)